Us Politics · resolved market
Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd506363d8c943bb299b14f1253a58527857e3d3d00cd42665b578f182422b208
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $216,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 292 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 5c | 11,860$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.54 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 7c | 8,016$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 14c | 6,448$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.27 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 60c | 6,388$3,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,548.86 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 27c | 4,380$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.62 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 54c | 4,117$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.54 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…cecfbacked Yes | 37c | 3,916$1,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.81 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…ab51backed Yes | 4c | 3,333$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.19 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7b…1476backed Yes | 22c | 2,980$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…e5f0backed Yes | 36c | 2,920$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.6 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…4541backed Yes | 1c | 2,617$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…be41backed Yes | 2c | 2,169$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 8c | 2,118$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…5a12backed No | 54c | 2,108$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec55…a300backed Yes | 36c | 2,103$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 1c | 2,099$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 5c | 2,001$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d9…2025backed Yes | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 62c | 1,954$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.87 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 40c | 1,928$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.93 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…f1b6backed No | 74c | 1,894$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed No | 68c | 1,847$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.07 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +88%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…908dbacked No | 72c | 1,775$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…3afcbacked No | 63c | 1,716$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdae…b808backed Yes | 27c | 1,702$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b67…584fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,629$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,590$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +358.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…5f46backed No | 63c | 1,578$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 54c | 1,475$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.98 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a6…c13fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,470$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 30c | 1,344$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.74 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed No | 73c | 1,339$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.08 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…d955backed Yes | 50c | 1,292$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 31c | 1,282$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.87 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Yes | 1c | 1,208$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…1d02backed No | 50c | 1,202$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed No | 56c | 1,070$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 1,050$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.29 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 1,001$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.65 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…e53cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…00c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…9cf1backed Yes | 35c | 964.24$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…27e7backed Yes | 51c | 939.28$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 51c | 899.14$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.09 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…e8bcbacked Yes | 26c | 875.29$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 28c | 851.7$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.3 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…515fbacked No | 65c | 784.55$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 32c | 783.4$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.05 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b53…1fe3backed Yes | 45c | 719.62$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 11c | 708$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcffb…1d14backed Yes | 37c | 692.91$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ef…ad1dbacked No | 57c | 680.68$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 30c | 657.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.71 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…9441backed Yes | 39c | 642.12$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed No | 54c | 637.72$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…6db0backed Yes | 18c | 624.26$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfa…adf8backed Yes | 57c | 559.8$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed No | 75c | 550$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 31c | 546.48$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0aa…97f9backed Yes | 39c | 542.86$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8155…5377backed Yes | 44c | 499.98$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 32c | 499.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 36c | 493.3$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.9 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a6…66a9backed Yes | 48c | 454.43$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 70c | 427.17$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.25 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 21c | 414.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.95 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3e…ac1cbacked No | 71c | 409.69$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ae…2324backed Yes | 36c | 401.56$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7f…cf7cbacked No | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfc…b77abacked Yes | 5c | 373.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…9b02backed No | 62c | 367.61$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.95 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 363.48$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.77 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…806bbacked Yes | 12c | 350$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…8345backed Yes | 25c | 340.47$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3c…487ebacked Yes | 60c | 330.72$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd861…cd3fbacked No | 61c | 328.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb1…ac0cbacked Yes | 43c | 322.02$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 23c | 320.91$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccce…2c7cbacked Yes | 48c | 320$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21d6…86fdbacked Yes | 33c | 304.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500a…a800backed No | 66c | 302.92$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…77dfbacked Yes | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 46c | 299.72$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.19 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed No | 69c | 290.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 38c | 285.75$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.23 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 14c | 280.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 279.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Yes | 31c | 262.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 77c | 258.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed No | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 76c | 243.85$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd39c…06e8backed Yes | 15c | 243.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…5788backed Yes | 39c | 240$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed Yes | 42c | 237.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 46c | 235.45$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.22 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…7af8backed Yes | 45c | 222.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1?this page
- Will $Trump FDV be $10-15b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $20-25b on Feb 1?Yes won
- Will $Trump FDV be $25-30b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $30-35b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $40-45b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $45-50b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $5-10b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.