Us Politics · resolved market
Will $Trump FDV be $25-30b on Feb 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd769f4473231d03250d2070962c695261ae193a38099ba99c47c8074bd6bd545
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 258 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecbc…3814backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0215…c398backed Yes | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,499.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 15c | 8,989$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.11 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcb…e907backed Yes | 12c | 5,174$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 10c | 4,292$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.42 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…8fe3backed Yes | 35c | 3,187$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 48c | 3,171$1,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.73 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5a…72c2backed No | 56c | 3,020$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 23c | 2,509$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.97 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3930…8f01backed Yes | 17c | 2,208$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2476…6bc9backed Yes | 23c | 2,200$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…696dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,130$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…51babacked Yes | 1c | 2,081$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 25c | 1,941$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 42c | 1,848$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.77 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,750$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…767abacked Yes | 61c | 1,730$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 38c | 1,308$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.4 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…c7f7backed Yes | 12c | 1,285$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f6…8085backed Yes | 47c | 1,200$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…b6e3backed Yes | 36c | 1,112$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…4541backed Yes | 22c | 1,011$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 76c | 1,000$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 981.69$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.74 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed Yes | 66c | 974.68$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 72c | 972.32$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed No | 74c | 913.73$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…4cd6backed No | 74c | 807.09$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…bc07backed Yes | 52c | 775.87$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…8eccbacked Yes | 1c | 764$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 760.51$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.89 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5204…1797backed Yes | 24c | 749.68$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21b…621bbacked Yes | 60c | 716.05$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed No | 75c | 715.18$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 54c | 705.85$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.35 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…d13cbacked Yes | 79c | 633.3$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 20c | 613.74$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.38 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…5789backed Yes | 8c | 609.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 6c | 577.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed No | 50c | 575.38$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.63 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6a74backed No | 77c | 575.14$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebd…4671backed No | 75c | 511.56$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71fa…6121backed Yes | 20c | 485.47$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…21bbbacked Yes | 64c | 465.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…f427backed Yes | 34c | 443.25$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf741…3d75backed No | 49c | 441.94$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +127%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 10c | 428.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7764…dc84backed Yes | 12c | 425.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +278%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…77dfbacked Yes | 12c | 418$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 408.15$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.91 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…7820backed Yes | 25c | 399.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…5adabacked Yes | 6c | 384.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ca…1f54backed Yes | 8c | 381.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 30cpaid | -90.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7f…d665backed Yes | 43c | 372.65$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 25c | 369.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7556…f7e4backed Yes | 51c | 350$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f3…7198backed Yes | 24c | 345.34$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966e…308bbacked Yes | 29c | 342.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 59c | 338.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 12c | 330$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…7049backed No | 75c | 329.19$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…460abacked Yes | 47c | 323.58$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…e5f0backed Yes | 6c | 314.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 39c | 304.3$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…0a49backed Yes | 12c | 284.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…4ebabacked Yes | 5c | 275.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 59c | 268.18$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…eb4fbacked Yes | 19c | 267.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f5…5b68backed No | 54c | 262.96$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 12c | 259.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61b…f73ebacked Yes | 10c | 255$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…705bbacked Yes | 6c | 251.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes | 17c | 245.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 8c | 243.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 67c | 236.71$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.87 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 18c | 232.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes | 17c | 232.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 58c | 231.74$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.35 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e5…2a64backed Yes | 68c | 228.49$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 6c | 226$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 22c | 223.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…9236backed Yes | 37c | 217.84$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 20c | 199.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed No | 74c | 199.98$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d18…9a5ebacked Yes | 52c | 193.16$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 12c | 191.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…e22ebacked Yes | 8c | 188.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 184.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ef…8ae8backed Yes | 11c | 184.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…5788backed Yes | 26c | 180$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Yes | 12c | 173.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccce…2c7cbacked Yes | 12c | 170.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 170.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0c…af79backed Yes | 59c | 169.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee0…4665backed Yes | 7c | 165.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…96febacked No | 48c | 165$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 24c | 163.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 42c | 150.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will $Trump FDV be $25-30b on Feb 1?this page
- Will $Trump FDV be $10-15b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $20-25b on Feb 1?Yes won
- Will $Trump FDV be $30-35b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $40-45b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $45-50b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $5-10b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.