Us Politics · resolved market
Will $Trump FDV be $20-25b on Feb 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5e0894f9a4216ca8eef99be49dc2821d032d298548b0f6abbd12cc7d516b7b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 28c | 4,626$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,316.88 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 28c | 4,328$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,112.35 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 10c | 4,176$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.42 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…3889backed No | 80c | 2,599$2,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,076.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 19c | 2,473$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,008.22 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 7c | 2,065$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…767abacked Yes | 53c | 1,606$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 8c | 1,605$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.78 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…c7f7backed Yes | 15c | 1,601$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.51 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 11c | 1,515$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.57 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…460abacked Yes | 31c | 1,386$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…696dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,337$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 13c | 1,242$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 15c | 1,173$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.76 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 18c | 1,087$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.02 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 964.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.13 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 25c | 962.6$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.3 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7f…cf7cbacked Yes | 17c | 860.55$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…b6e3backed Yes | 28c | 822$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 776.15$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.95 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…8afebacked Yes | 14c | 747.06$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.43 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 730.85$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.52 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes | 54c | 729$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.82 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed Yes | 12c | 709.66$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.66 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 670.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.91 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac7…6b3abacked Yes | 33c | 629.25$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +58%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 48c | 600$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 51c | 583.79$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7764…dc84backed Yes | 13c | 529.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +278%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes | 29c | 525.15$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 11c | 525$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…2732backed Yes | 48c | 519.28$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.67 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 8c | 500$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…4541backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5204…1797backed Yes | 23c | 480.5$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…bc07backed Yes | 22c | 478.5$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…5789backed Yes | 14c | 477.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.36 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 9c | 465.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.17 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Yes | 9c | 459.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.68 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71fa…6121backed Yes | 25c | 445.62$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed Yes | 66c | 440.74$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.66 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 38c | 431.89$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.41 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f3…7198backed Yes | 29c | 421.87$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066b…5ab2backed Yes | 29c | 417.45$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +247.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 48c | 415.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.3 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd321…a77fbacked Yes | 57c | 412$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…f427backed Yes | 29c | 411.06$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.02 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…2c08backed Yes | 21c | 404.76$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 8c | 395.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.02 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 38c | 387.4$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7f…d665backed Yes | 21c | 386.64$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 15c | 328.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.38 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 35c | 318.29$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.9 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…4cd6backed Yes | 32c | 316.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085a…c87fbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…5c87backed Yes | 72c | 285.43$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…e55cbacked Yes | 24c | 284.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +312.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 9c | 282.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.5 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 70c | 282.02$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.7 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…705bbacked Yes | 7c | 279.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…5adabacked Yes | 8c | 275$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.59 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 26c | 261.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 19c | 260$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.3 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…e5f0backed Yes | 8c | 252.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…dbe1backed Yes | 69c | 250.72$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e0…68a8backed Yes | 21c | 247.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 244.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.68 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf741…3d75backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +127%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed Yes | 21c | 194.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.43 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 27c | 187.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.41 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0c…af79backed Yes | 28c | 176.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ef…8ae8backed Yes | 12c | 171.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 10c | 170$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…ed4dbacked Yes | 32c | 169$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 17c | 163.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.26 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…5e35backed Yes | 26c | 163$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +285.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 62c | 158.23$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21b…621bbacked Yes | 72c | 153.62$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdae…b808backed Yes | 25c | 147.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…ec88backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…5c09backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88a…4f75backed Yes | 30c | 119.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 55c | 118.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…5fbdbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…da0abacked Yes | 24c | 115$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 113.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 12c | 107$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.37 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…d6abbacked Yes | 22c | 102.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 76c | 102.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6d…02cabacked Yes | 24c | 101.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 78c | 100.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…4f3abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0812…a9b4backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dea…c7f7backed No | 49c | 96.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ed…5707backed Yes | 11c | 93.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will $Trump FDV be $20-25b on Feb 1?this page
- Will $Trump FDV be $10-15b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $25-30b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $30-35b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $40-45b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $45-50b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $5-10b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.