Us Politics · resolved market
Will $Trump FDV be $30-35b on Feb 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28865f8afeecb1949dfd35c29efba19d8c65bc15cc90a73507bf3329b309f78c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 0c | 9,309$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 15c | 6,046$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.25 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 0c | 5,215$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 4,692$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.19 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…4541backed Yes | 14c | 4,171$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…7820backed Yes | 20c | 3,509$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Yes | 6c | 3,249$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…767abacked Yes | 18c | 2,680$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…51babacked Yes | 2c | 2,368$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…c7f7backed Yes | 16c | 2,054$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3930…8f01backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,695$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes | 3c | 1,188$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed No | 79c | 1,096$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 12c | 917.84$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 9c | 886.57$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 12c | 795$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 18c | 722.92$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…696dbacked Yes | 15c | 684.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 14c | 611.26$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c14…3371backed Yes | 18c | 600$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 23c | 524.75$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.67 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e4…7b4ebacked Yes | 18c | 504.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Yes | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…b6e3backed Yes | 14c | 492.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 14c | 415$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 19c | 390$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed Yes | 12c | 367.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…badcbacked Yes | 9c | 366.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…9236backed Yes | 25c | 364.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…eb4fbacked Yes | 14c | 345.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 340.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 5c | 329.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 316.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd95f…486abacked Yes | 16c | 305.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 16c | 303$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d34…17e8backed Yes | 6c | 301$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…360dbacked Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbd…88e2backed Yes | 18c | 282.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…705bbacked Yes | 7c | 270.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 11c | 268.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5204…1797backed Yes | 9c | 258.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…1b02backed Yes | 8c | 254.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…806bbacked Yes | 12c | 250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 8c | 240.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…1d02backed Yes | 8c | 238.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 8c | 230$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…e5f0backed Yes | 10c | 223.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9be…fe74backed Yes | 16c | 214.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f6…42e5backed Yes | 7c | 204.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Yes | 10c | 203.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0243…396ebacked Yes | 10c | 200.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…00c7backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…5f46backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…ab51backed Yes | 12c | 186$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…5adabacked Yes | 8c | 182.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee0…4665backed Yes | 7c | 180.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d1…1949backed Yes | 9c | 166.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 16c | 163.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccce…2c7cbacked Yes | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…f427backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfc…b77abacked Yes | 19c | 146.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1663…164bbacked Yes | 7c | 142.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0c…af79backed Yes | 14c | 138.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe737…64c1backed Yes | 7c | 135.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e4…3848backed Yes | 19c | 130.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…0d3abacked Yes | 19c | 128.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…4c27backed Yes | 14c | 111.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…bed3backed Yes | 10c | 110.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdae…b808backed Yes | 15c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…4a06backed Yes | 16c | 105.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…7b90backed Yes | 14c | 103.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…4f3abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…36c8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…2732backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…f617backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…5789backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf88a…4f75backed Yes | 14c | 99.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ca…1f54backed Yes | 17c | 96.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 30cpaid | -90.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…35d9backed Yes | 15c | 93.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d5…7e99backed Yes | 16c | 82.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 46c | 77.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbe…ee8dbacked Yes | 17c | 76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…ed4dbacked Yes | 24c | 67.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…88b7backed Yes | 20c | 66.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 48c | 55.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a89…c71bbacked Yes | 19c | 54.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…4831backed Yes | 23c | 50.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 57c | 38.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 78c | 34.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will $Trump FDV be $30-35b on Feb 1?this page
- Will $Trump FDV be $10-15b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $20-25b on Feb 1?Yes won
- Will $Trump FDV be $25-30b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $40-45b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $45-50b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $5-10b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.