Us Politics · resolved market
Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05abfe3cb89504134856c42c701bbe77b3f26fa3d4dfcbd7a3d8e76b143fd288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $304,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $304,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 0c | 18,451$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 4c | 15,796$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.51 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 3c | 15,007$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 11,064$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.16 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…38d5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,680$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…86e8backed Yes | 0c | 8,432$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4376…333cbacked Yes | 7c | 7,366$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c5…5b3fbacked Yes | 3c | 6,710$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 4c | 5,490$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…bfa8backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 2c | 3,921$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d69…26c9backed Yes | 1c | 3,841$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…23e2backed Yes | 2c | 3,730$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…8afebacked Yes | 3c | 3,589$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…5c09backed Yes | 1c | 2,754$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb6…1838backed Yes | 7c | 2,720$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5204…1797backed Yes | 2c | 2,674$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb566…2693backed Yes | 2c | 2,629$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…6788backed Yes | 4c | 2,348$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa290…e6f6backed Yes | 2c | 2,150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked Yes | 9c | 1,896$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.21 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71fd…fac1backed Yes | 7c | 1,790$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3220…cba1backed Yes | 13c | 1,777$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 4c | 1,666$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 12c | 1,379$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.58 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefb1…e714backed Yes | 3c | 1,278$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 1,140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed Yes | 2c | 1,094$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Yes | 2c | 1,066$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3df…9f6cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,058$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d88…ed1bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,011$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Yes | 7c | 958.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 11c | 915.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 2c | 848.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 794.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…e76ebacked Yes | 3c | 747.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 6c | 700$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yes | 4c | 659.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1a66backed Yes | 5c | 635.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…4d6cbacked Yes | 5c | 579.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 2c | 509.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 9c | 508.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…1d02backed Yes | 4c | 400.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 7c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf349…680abacked Yes | 4c | 372.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…7275backed Yes | 10c | 368.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 335.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 4c | 319.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed Yes | 3c | 299.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccd5…327abacked Yes | 11c | 295$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b0…e5eebacked Yes | 7c | 289.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 8c | 282.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…5adabacked Yes | 6c | 273.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes | 6c | 270.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…cc4ebacked Yes | 9c | 224.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5936…764bbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 24c | 180.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3d…f421backed Yes | 7c | 171.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 11c | 131.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 28c | 95.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 74c | 87.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1?this page
- Will $Trump FDV be $10-15b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $20-25b on Feb 1?Yes won
- Will $Trump FDV be $25-30b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $30-35b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $40-45b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $45-50b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $5-10b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.