Us Politics · resolved market
Will $Trump FDV be $45-50b on Feb 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf11556c7591bf040b38322cf6ffe4de0b626832987d5a8b82d96581c0bc3b080
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 2c | 6,623$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.65 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…ab51backed Yes | 1c | 6,405$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…4541backed Yes | 1c | 3,869$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…00c7backed Yes | 1c | 2,807$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 2c | 2,159$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…7820backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…c7f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,052$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 6c | 963.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 960.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 7c | 791.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 1c | 789.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1239…f34cbacked Yes | 8c | 531.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b96…e9e9backed Yes | 6c | 474.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 9c | 473$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc607…bf25backed Yes | 5c | 460$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed Yes | 9c | 402.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…1d02backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbe…ee8dbacked Yes | 6c | 398$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 6c | 379.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…8533backed Yes | 6c | 348.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 8c | 311.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…ec88backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 20c | 263.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71fa…6121backed Yes | 10c | 245.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…705bbacked Yes | 10c | 222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…1b02backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…e5f0backed Yes | 9c | 212.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…86d1backed Yes | 9c | 212$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 7c | 208.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…1dfdbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 6c | 171.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 8c | 159.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1663…164bbacked Yes | 9c | 144.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee0…4665backed Yes | 9c | 132.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe737…64c1backed Yes | 10c | 104.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will $Trump FDV be $45-50b on Feb 1?this page
- Will $Trump FDV be $10-15b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $20-25b on Feb 1?Yes won
- Will $Trump FDV be $25-30b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $30-35b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $40-45b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $5-10b on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1?No won
- Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.