UFC · resolved market
Silva vs. Almeida
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd518b60f6938fe483ceb6b98418f7d52de874c14857598f617f813bd61b35010
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Slivaof Sliva, Almeida
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Almeida | 27c | 11,292$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060.05 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Sliva | 73c | 10,690$7,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,925.56 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d4…9f1abacked Sliva | 73c | 1,711$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Almeida | 27c | 1,616$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.6 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…39d3backed Sliva | 73c | 1,600$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Almeida | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Almeida | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2732…3085backed Almeida | 13c | 317.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Sliva | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…0455backed Almeida | 30c | 188$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…53c7backed Almeida | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…8806backed Sliva | 70c | 156$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a3…2b37backed Almeida | 30c | 131$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Sliva | 72c | 124.25$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Almeida | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5e…1c24backed Almeida | 30c | 103$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Sliva | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…df76backed Almeida | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…d34abacked Sliva | 70c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0de…5872backed Sliva | 70c | 81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad09…ad3cbacked Sliva | 70c | 78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367d…06c5backed Almeida | 18c | 74.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Almeida | 17c | 72.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…c7debacked Almeida | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Almeida | 28c | 54.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Almeida | 29c | 48.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba87…103bbacked Almeida | 30c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd1…48eabacked Sliva | 68c | 31.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…4df2backed Sliva | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6f…e90ebacked Sliva | 68c | 25.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…550cbacked Sliva | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…ae46backed Sliva | 72c | 18.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…3ae6backed Sliva | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12e…72d8backed Sliva | 69c | 14.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Silva vs. Almeidathis page
- Amil vs. GomisAmil won
- Barlow vs. PattersonPatterson won
- Brundage vs. MarquezBrundage won
- Haqparast vs. RibovicsHaqparast won
- Johnson vs. TemirovTemirov won
- Kape vs. AlmabayevKape won
- Lane vs. PintoPinto won
- Lee vs. AldrichAldrich won
- Ramos vs. MariscalMariscal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.