UFC · resolved market
Lane vs. Pinto
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x636a83cd554a13609c62a13800897fc737030c9dc2a459064b5cd4d19eb0bfcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pintoof Lane, Pinto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Lane | 32c | 3,434$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.7 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lane | 18c | 2,306$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.88 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Pinto | 56c | 2,202$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.59 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Lane | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f9…a1debacked Lane | 17c | 1,463$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Lane | 18c | 800$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Lane | 18c | 541.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Lane | 19c | 526.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…53c7backed Lane | 30c | 398.94$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Pinto | 73c | 350$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…39d3backed Lane | 19c | 281.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14a2…e231backed Lane | 17c | 209.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe865…baaebacked Lane | 17c | 181$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Lane | 19c | 158$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Lane | 17c | 158$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed Lane | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb47…31cabacked Lane | 17c | 89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Lane | 15c | 77.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Lane | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b15…69f6backed Lane | 18c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731f…c098backed Lane | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Lane | 18c | 57.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lane vs. Pintothis page
- Amil vs. GomisAmil won
- Barlow vs. PattersonPatterson won
- Brundage vs. MarquezBrundage won
- Haqparast vs. RibovicsHaqparast won
- Johnson vs. TemirovTemirov won
- Kape vs. AlmabayevKape won
- Lee vs. AldrichAldrich won
- Ramos vs. MariscalMariscal won
- Silva vs. AlmeidaSliva won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.