TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Kape vs. Almabayev

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kapeof Kape, Almabayev
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$295,091
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$297,707

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $295,091 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfa64…7643backed Almabayev32c92,118$29,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,477.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed1…b57ebacked Kape68c92,118$62,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,477.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Kape67c75,988$51,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,732.2535253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ff0…46e3backed Almabayev32c58,275$18,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,656.263847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Almabayev34c11,161$3,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,743.4614857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6524…3204backed Almabayev22c5,764$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.46520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Almabayev34c5,133$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745.121330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x863f…8775backed Kape68c5,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6002657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Almabayev33c2,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.9913735.8%49 W · 88 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2c4…0734backed Almabayev35c2,105$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.972937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef38…ae8cbacked Almabayev33c1,976$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.176453.1%34 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x024a…decbbacked Almabayev33c1,683$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.123050%15 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+28.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x73cb…b0d0backed Kape65c1,508$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc954…bdf5backed Kape63c1,372$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.54259.5%25 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d42…9b05backed Kape67c1,271$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Almabayev32c1,225$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39425251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3eb…e855backed Kape67c1,105$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.122040%8 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Almabayev14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010529.5%31 W · 74 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Almabayev33c999.89$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.9614129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Kape69c900$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27912159.5%72 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Kape64c862.21$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.1511844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Kape67c828.36$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.366462.5%40 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe07c…551dbacked Almabayev38c790.57$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.943438.2%13 W · 21 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-35.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x20ed…c7debacked Almabayev36c781.51$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.491353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x476a…76bdbacked Kape67c746.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.276262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+24.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Kape67c499.99$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16535539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1990…e954backed Kape67c422.3$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.36862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Kape66c401.14$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7848749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60dd…4df2backed Almabayev34c382.69$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.942556%14 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ab…47adbacked Almabayev33c362$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kape65c313.74$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.8133253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Almabayev33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997448.6%36 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Kape66c299.99$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10224862.5%155 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdba1…e6cdbacked Almabayev17c298.84$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.473537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c56…186abacked Almabayev34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Almabayev35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014130.5%43 W · 98 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Kape64c270.54$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.411540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Almabayev31c250$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.53943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x207a…6fecbacked Almabayev35c228.57$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813548.6%17 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x87a0…4e12backed Kape68c221.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.781145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x155f…a78fbacked Kape67c221$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x886e…bd0ebacked Almabayev33c215$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a2…e231backed Almabayev33c199.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffb5…9653backed Kape67c182$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41c…c9b3backed Almabayev34c176.47$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609737.1%36 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Kape61c172$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.089062.2%56 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0fb…4545backed Kape67c167$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9de1…896abacked Almabayev36c154.38$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2f1…bd6abacked Kape67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.253158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7308…8058backed Kape67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.25955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa308…9938backed Almabayev34c147.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.65728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Kape68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.066352.4%33 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f16…5546backed Kape68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.062665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6333…e00bbacked Kape68c146.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.022060%12 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+21.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0e8f…b7fdbacked Kape69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4326…6122backed Kape69c144.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Almabayev34c139.75$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4828333.2%94 W · 189 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Almabayev37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509950.5%50 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2c…7cbfbacked Almabayev36c117.06$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c72…5c26backed Kape69c116$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9610452.9%55 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Almabayev34c108.53$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.913465.7%88 W · 46 L+10.1wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ffc…6988backed Almabayev33c105$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.258535.3%30 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…24c3backed Kape67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332450%12 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x095f…41b7backed Almabayev34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343141.9%13 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Almabayev34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346254.8%34 W · 28 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed Almabayev34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349352.7%49 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Kape67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3322653.1%120 W · 106 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Kape63c98.08$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.292650%13 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Almabayev31c96.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7811761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Almabayev33c94.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.181070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+43.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Kape68c89$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.482740.7%11 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-32.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x10cf…010dbacked Almabayev27c80$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.44344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe237…4b89backed Almabayev33c78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed Kape69c75$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.253852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cfe…a1e0backed Kape67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.633100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+94.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf96c…40e1backed Almabayev35c74.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Kape68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.535754.4%31 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Kape68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.535954.2%32 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1df1…e7a9backed Almabayev35c71.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick50cpaid-46.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed Almabayev34c70.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246560%39 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+25.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Almabayev34c67.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.921414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-69.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Almabayev34c61.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2124649.6%122 W · 124 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Kape46c59.66$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.224330.2%13 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafb7…75f4backed Almabayev34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207655.3%42 W · 34 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61ff…dce9backed Almabayev33c54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6911…a1c8backed Almabayev34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Kape67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.536745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3068…2421backed Almabayev33c49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9414…83c9backed Almabayev33c48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x367d…06c5backed Almabayev26c47.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.212227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…c9d6backed Almabayev33c47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x096b…8241backed Kape67c46$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x210c…1625backed Almabayev34c46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x987c…9d7dbacked Almabayev34c44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b48…8972backed Almabayev33c44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe266…add3backed Almabayev34c40.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+39.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cde…98acbacked Kape66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Almabayev34c39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xffc1…e943backed Kape67c39$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…466fbacked Kape66c38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.