UFC · resolved market
Barlow vs. Patterson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bb26ba414c10df17d10c361b7246903d14b41142a4af164eee2de92614125b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pattersonof Barlow, Patterson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Patterson | 29c | 6,108$1,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,346.67 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Barlow | 67c | 5,205$3,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,506.44 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Patterson | 34c | 5,121$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,354.07 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Barlow | 71c | 5,003$3,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,552.33 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Patterson | 33c | 2,726$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,826.26 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d4…9f1abacked Barlow | 67c | 2,529$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,694.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Patterson | 32c | 2,500$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…e855backed Barlow | 69c | 2,477$1,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,721 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Barlow | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 178 | 51.7%92 W · 86 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Barlow | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Barlow | 65c | 850$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.17 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Barlow | 72c | 540$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.3 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1990…e954backed Patterson | 36c | 527.75$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Patterson | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Patterson | 30c | 499.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.99 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Patterson | 35c | 450$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…39d3backed Barlow | 66c | 309.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.6 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Patterson | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…53c7backed Patterson | 35c | 214.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.29 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa308…9938backed Barlow | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Barlow | 67c | 119.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Barlow | 71c | 112$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Barlow | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Barlow | 68c | 88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Patterson | 35c | 87.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f27…a98cbacked Barlow | 70c | 76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Barlow | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Patterson | 30c | 52.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc7…f72ebacked Patterson | 30c | 52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Barlow | 72c | 41.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8995…13ebbacked Patterson | 32c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Barlow | 68c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…a98dbacked Patterson | 32c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Patterson | 35c | 36.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Barlow | 75c | 35.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Patterson | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…4c9fbacked Barlow | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c56…186abacked Barlow | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…2aaebacked Barlow | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Barlow | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…86b4backed Barlow | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd1…48eabacked Barlow | 72c | 17.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…1e95backed Barlow | 72c | 17.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Barlow | 66c | 17.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Barlow vs. Pattersonthis page
- Amil vs. GomisAmil won
- Brundage vs. MarquezBrundage won
- Haqparast vs. RibovicsHaqparast won
- Johnson vs. TemirovTemirov won
- Kape vs. AlmabayevKape won
- Lane vs. PintoPinto won
- Lee vs. AldrichAldrich won
- Ramos vs. MariscalMariscal won
- Silva vs. AlmeidaSliva won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.