UFC · resolved market
Johnson vs. Temirov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25f8116f249776da1917374ae7b9d620329dd26f98692acc6a7e659d4425ab6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Temirovof Johnson, Temirov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Temirov | 46c | 9,792$4,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,301.69 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Johnson | 52c | 9,382$4,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,846.47 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Temirov | 48c | 8,000$3,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,140 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Johnson | 54c | 8,000$4,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,349.99 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Temirov | 48c | 5,030$2,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,615.89 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…bdf5backed Johnson | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Temirov | 63c | 1,693$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.76 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Johnson | 50c | 1,689$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d4…9f1abacked Temirov | 49c | 1,251$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…c7debacked Temirov | 48c | 1,043$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.22 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Johnson | 52c | 1,043$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.22 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Johnson | 54c | 800$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Temirov | 50c | 799.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.05 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Johnson | 53c | 705$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.65 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Temirov | 47c | 454.55$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.91 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Johnson | 53c | 448$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.44 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…39d3backed Johnson | 54c | 371$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.34 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Temirov | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Temirov | 61c | 199.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…53c7backed Johnson | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Temirov | 45c | 178$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2732…3085backed Temirov | 74c | 175.17$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Johnson | 55c | 146.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Temirov | 49c | 136.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Temirov | 46c | 136.36$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Johnson | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Temirov | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9789…21d1backed Temirov | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Johnson | 49c | 45.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Temirov | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…4df2backed Temirov | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed Temirov | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Johnson | 45c | 28.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Temirov | 52c | 21.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb825…7aa8backed Temirov | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Johnson vs. Temirovthis page
- Amil vs. GomisAmil won
- Barlow vs. PattersonPatterson won
- Brundage vs. MarquezBrundage won
- Haqparast vs. RibovicsHaqparast won
- Kape vs. AlmabayevKape won
- Lane vs. PintoPinto won
- Lee vs. AldrichAldrich won
- Ramos vs. MariscalMariscal won
- Silva vs. AlmeidaSliva won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.