UFC · resolved market
Brundage vs. Marquez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf94e86c3c37d1e3a6b4dba892dbf8cb70d64c86dd4c0993f1780778a677da2d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brundageof Brundage, Marquez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Marquez | 52c | 36,258$18,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,883.44 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Brundage | 46c | 16,000$7,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,640 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Brundage | 48c | 12,956$6,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,707.72 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Marquez | 50c | 6,480$3,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,217.33 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Brundage | 50c | 5,350$2,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,665.5 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Marquez | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.99 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…8775backed Brundage | 52c | 2,600$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.73 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Brundage | 53c | 2,279$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.32 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed Marquez | 48c | 2,094$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Brundage | 52c | 2,064$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.69 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…76bdbacked Brundage | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.68 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Brundage | 52c | 1,234$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.77 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Brundage | 50c | 1,108$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.84 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Brundage | 50c | 1,106$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Marquez | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…bdf5backed Marquez | 49c | 808$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.92 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6524…3204backed Marquez | 50c | 802.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1990…e954backed Brundage | 50c | 744.2$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Brundage | 50c | 665$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.5 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Marquez | 51c | 625.6$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.01 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Brundage | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Brundage | 50c | 400$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Marquez | 49c | 371$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.79 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2732…3085backed Marquez | 50c | 368.54$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Brundage | 52c | 296.15$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.15 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Brundage | 51c | 258.38$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Brundage | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Marquez | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Brundage | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed Marquez | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Brundage | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Marquez | 47c | 144.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…4df2backed Brundage | 69c | 133.29$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Brundage | 49c | 130.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…53c7backed Brundage | 52c | 124.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Brundage | 54c | 120.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Brundage | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Brundage | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Brundage | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Brundage | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Brundage | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Marquez | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Brundage | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Brundage | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Brundage | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…a1e0backed Brundage | 49c | 81.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…06acbacked Marquez | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bb…6b62backed Brundage | 49c | 75.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Marquez | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…8058backed Brundage | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Marquez | 29c | 51.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Marquez | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…4c9fbacked Marquez | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Marquez | 52c | 35.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Brundage | 48c | 33.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb2…2a7fbacked Brundage | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…e5ecbacked Marquez | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Brundage | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e19…862ebacked Brundage | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…a645backed Marquez | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe266…add3backed Brundage | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…26c5backed Brundage | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0f…e129backed Marquez | 52c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0baa…729dbacked Brundage | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Marquez | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Brundage | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Brundage | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brundage vs. Marquezthis page
- Amil vs. GomisAmil won
- Barlow vs. PattersonPatterson won
- Haqparast vs. RibovicsHaqparast won
- Johnson vs. TemirovTemirov won
- Kape vs. AlmabayevKape won
- Lane vs. PintoPinto won
- Lee vs. AldrichAldrich won
- Ramos vs. MariscalMariscal won
- Silva vs. AlmeidaSliva won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.