Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x040915034b8d3240ce0e33f38ba7aae4a77c51b27998c4114cb1f9d3468c907e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $400,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $371,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $400,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 11c | 66,292$7,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,145.72 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 7c | 24,888$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,748.14 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 8c | 21,299$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,741.07 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 9c | 9,624$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.78 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…8921backed Yes | 5c | 6,616$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -69%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…96a5backed Yes | 12c | 5,900$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.12 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 5c | 5,347$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.5 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 9c | 4,477$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.95 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 12c | 4,192$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.66 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…c448backed Yes | 1c | 4,172$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 1c | 4,016$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 4c | 3,700$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.8 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…42e9backed Yes | 14c | 3,601$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,223$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.66 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 10c | 3,111$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 4c | 2,199$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…0d17backed Yes | 1c | 1,990$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 13c | 1,881$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 6c | 1,777$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 8c | 1,758$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 12c | 1,654$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.58 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 13c | 1,433$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.76 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 20c | 979.02$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.49 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 10c | 882.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 843.66$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 8c | 800$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 10c | 738.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 8c | 736$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 722.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 7c | 717$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…8460backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c0…e601backed Yes | 7c | 705.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 681.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ce…f183backed Yes | 11c | 609.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 9c | 600$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 14c | 573.62$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.62 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 4c | 571.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 552$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 10c | 549.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f2…59e2backed Yes | 18c | 540.02$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 11c | 499.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa293…2919backed Yes | 11c | 491.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4acf…eaf1backed No | 79c | 487.06$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.25 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 8c | 476.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 10c | 463.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee3d…501bbacked Yes | 9c | 400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 397.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 22c | 374.01$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 357.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 343.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…9d25backed Yes | 6c | 334.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b6…7687backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 332.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 8c | 329.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…2ee3backed Yes | 6c | 323.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 15c | 278.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 7c | 270$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 16c | 246.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 9c | 241.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 12c | 224.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 11c | 221$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…4ee8backed No | 75c | 220.94$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ed…ce43backed Yes | 14c | 208.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 12c | 202.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…b7b6backed Yes | 14c | 195.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed Yes | 9c | 190.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 7c | 170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 19c | 170$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…a0f3backed Yes | 15c | 168.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x776e…0198backed Yes | 11c | 134.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0881…b590backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0ef5backed Yes | 12c | 126.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee48…d00fbacked No | 79c | 121.87$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…292cbacked Yes | 11c | 119.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed Yes | 10c | 115$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…fbc7backed Yes | 11c | 91.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7d…2a8fbacked Yes | 13c | 91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceac…634cbacked No | 75c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 13c | 80.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…f573backed Yes | 19c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…cf87backed No | 79c | 25.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…4c9fbacked No | 79c | 15.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +165.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.