TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$287,048
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$290,971

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $287,048 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29f…5ccabacked No8c98,070$8,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,259.931070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked No7c21,000$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.954522.2%10 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-63.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes63c16,919$10,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,250.927146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb71a…6fc9backed No19c13,339$2,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,495.371838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-34.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No0c11,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1113818.1%25 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No5c10,150$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.4214135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d57…bd62backed No30c9,165$2,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,769.73435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc212…a125backed Yes68c5,872$3,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.382552%13 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97a6…1a98backed No0c5,476$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8516…e6f2backed No1c5,014$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No9c4,730$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.883859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No30c3,755$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.415032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes62c3,338$2,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.175642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No30c3,277$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.7910347.6%49 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes78c2,985$2,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.261546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked No15c2,121$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.368640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad85…78fcbacked No36c2,100$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.561020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No24c2,059$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.8121022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed No41c2,026$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.112025%5 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-56.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.6437844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No8c1,874$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9211120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No8c1,505$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3911121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes72c1,422$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.722835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No29c1,018$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.8219436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5088…8844backed No12c1,010$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.811526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d44…b15ebacked No27c1,000$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10380%0 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6426…bb53backed Yes63c998.31$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.31837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cda…89ebbacked No49c892.18$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bda…5e13backed No9c685.1$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.31728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+634.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes69c654.94$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.591,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf70c…72c1backed No32c652.97$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed No22c644.67$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.723318.2%6 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-56.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes73c627$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.78143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No32c588.49$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.7916144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes61c532.8$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.7923149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed No36c509.47$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.411520%3 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258632.6%28 W · 58 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf0d…c7bebacked No40c377.4$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No34c360$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.91118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-67.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x966a…4d34backed No25c323.24$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802528%7 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bb8…7c0fbacked No24c312.66$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.37425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-68.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes70c300$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9116943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked No28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes61c299.99$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1176256.5%35 W · 27 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes76c263.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1614843.2%64 W · 84 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked No39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-36.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes76c249.1$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.596065%39 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8663…35e7backed No36c205.68$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.22030%6 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74da…1ba5backed No25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Yes63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes69c192.43$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.958646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d5a…917ebacked No30c158$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.821717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-68.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf645…b8c2backed No14c150$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b69…e32abacked No30c139.43$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.373432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0e…49e3backed No29c127.89$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.592630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No30c125.4$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1737740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a5…c1e2backed No36c112.62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9b…cc29backed No22c110$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f7…8545backed Yes71c102.51$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.234100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed Yes76c101.77$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.619641.7%40 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2718033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed No32c96.54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.896858.8%40 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd1d…b57fbacked No23c95.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.613625%9 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No40c90$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.723543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3914…51d7backed Yes67c90$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.712462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa24d…e885backed No26c88.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b2e…3b1cbacked No43c74.62$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes71c65$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.155514.5%8 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-58.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No16c63.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1110035%35 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc22f…133dbacked No27c55.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa188…3fccbacked Yes73c52.95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.42633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed No25c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.25922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-37.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc6…4ddebacked Yes69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3585…1595backed Yes73c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.62951.7%15 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x87a0…4e12backed No39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4be8…e00abacked No25c42.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.63633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-51.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf1…1e9bbacked No36c36.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.111513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-81.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6956…c37fbacked Yes65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+34.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5cb…27b3backed Yes71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.71233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-53.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6869…7dd2backed Yes72c27.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38cd…a557backed Yes63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.45147.1%24 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.62626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc61d…f3a3backed Yes69c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc6…b10dbacked Yes70c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf45e…725bbacked Yes68c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c33…d0e8backed Yes67c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x150c…f9dcbacked Yes70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf932…b3d2backed Yes74c14.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f7…8569backed Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+62%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.