Us Politics · resolved market
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9645a29e64ce8d9612cf700b1dd7a3ca1ad10d6f60c99fe4edc3670844cd02e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,292,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,692,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,292,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38a7…e476backed No | 0c | 2,000,816$3,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,635 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed No | 0c | 468,011$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…1376backed No | 0c | 448,333$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…a08ebacked No | 0c | 415,484$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7625…3594backed No | 0c | 404,120$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…9d85backed No | 0c | 398,044$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed No | 0c | 205,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4318backed No | 0c | 169,769$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda45…d95bbacked No | 0c | 146,128$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…41a9backed No | 0c | 137,203$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked No | 0c | 128,333$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb791…951cbacked No | 0c | 120,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf467…298fbacked No | 0c | 105,500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked No | 0c | 90,200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50aa…143dbacked No | 0c | 88,740$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f98…bafcbacked No | 0c | 80,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 0c | 76,538$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.67 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19dd…e6bebacked No | 0c | 66,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf728…2283backed No | 0c | 59,021$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2e03backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074f…08a9backed No | 0c | 47,550$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 51c | 46,209$23,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,703.09 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…504bbacked No | 0c | 44,806$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 0c | 44,751$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x041e…8d9bbacked No | 0c | 31,883$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…0643backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb799…c753backed No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 19,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 74c | 17,001$12,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,385.26 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…8519backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked No | 0c | 15,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 23c | 15,000$3,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,450 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed No | 1c | 11,600$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.6 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 0c | 11,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40c…908abacked No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…7636backed No | 0c | 10,900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…f5aebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb91…c12bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…ad6fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…0e8ebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8491…f31fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…b0d2backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…7809backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6363…8fbcbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…6210backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…38bcbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…c110backed No | 0c | 10,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…c2aabacked No | 0c | 8,552$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 26c | 7,561$1,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.51 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 7,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 20c | 5,655$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.45 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 0c | 5,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdf…c324backed No | 63c | 5,247$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec58…86c4backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 74c | 4,483$3,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.71 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…d493backed No | 1c | 4,057$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…1df6backed No | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 6c | 3,943$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.15 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes | 75c | 3,798$2,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.84 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 73c | 3,727$2,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.44 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 3c | 3,469$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed Yes | 77c | 3,091$2,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 78c | 3,047$2,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.79 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed Yes | 76c | 3,000$2,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.44 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 40c | 2,998$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.85 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed Yes | 56c | 2,989$1,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.37 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 23c | 2,872$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.08 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 33c | 2,691$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,791.19 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38fb…3585backed No | 2c | 2,610$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 57c | 2,541$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.58 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 26c | 2,392$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.24 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed Yes | 66c | 2,000$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 50c | 1,982$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.84 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 73c | 1,616$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.01 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 48c | 1,604$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.45 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 24c | 1,553$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.38 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 22c | 1,539$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.47 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed No | 29c | 1,512$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.63 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…2dc6backed Yes | 75c | 1,504$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes | 80c | 1,364$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.78 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…fbbfbacked No | 25c | 1,251$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 44c | 1,223$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.3 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 38c | 1,202$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.2 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 40c | 1,147$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.9 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed Yes | 79c | 1,111$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.87 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 41c | 1,003$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.88 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…a121backed Yes | 79c | 1,000$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 39c | 999.7$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.8 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 931.53$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.19 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 61c | 902$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.09 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f6…6e92backed Yes | 39c | 860.67$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 39c | 818.81$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.12 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe43a…9c1fbacked Yes | 73c | 812.63$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e71…ad34backed No | 62c | 812.55$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed Yes | 39c | 743.64$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.32 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 67c | 714.02$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.39 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…a265backed No | 25c | 691.94$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.