TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Kanye launch a coin by March 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$414,702
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$367,641

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $414,702 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1ca8…dc6dbacked Yes0c70,536$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes6c28,434$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,720.4575.3%3 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid+48.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd11…e918backed Yes12c12,708$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe118…cba3backed Yes12c10,070$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3d91…ab35backed Yes15c6,941$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ad…ca52backed Yes5c6,468$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes2c6,329$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef9…b8e8backed Yes5c5,500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeedd…d0f0backed Yes4c5,286$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc20e…0a5ebacked Yes5c5,168$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes9c5,039$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes7c4,531$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.181118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes5c4,207$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.861020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes11c3,893$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.5213424.6%33 W · 101 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes14c3,608$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.644320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes6c3,082$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.45623.2%13 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes10c3,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes11c2,830$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.322714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes16c2,605$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.53850%4 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+108.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes6c2,514$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ee…5a28backed Yes11c2,497$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aff…1d0abacked Yes9c2,248$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076a…2cdbbacked Yes2c2,231$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf72f…76f0backed Yes13c2,162$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbceb…bd96backed Yes4c2,149$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87a0…4e12backed Yes12c2,141$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes9c1,995$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.57021.4%15 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd522…3a17backed Yes5c1,771$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x674a…3e2dbacked Yes7c1,711$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed Yes4c1,650$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6053…2c5fbacked Yes6c1,561$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7830…783fbacked No75c1,450$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4556…2271backed Yes7c1,286$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcea3…011cbacked Yes17c1,192$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes7c1,100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x683a…3b03backed Yes9c1,080$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002544%11 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed Yes7c1,042$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes7c1,009$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e6a…2720backed Yes11c1,007$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bdd…d56bbacked Yes4c984.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81b1…dd89backed Yes13c901.15$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes8c900$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c3…a81ebacked Yes6c873.85$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes9c813.25$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1516927.8%47 W · 122 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2574…9189backed Yes10c811$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes11c764.61$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.62714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-82%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c714.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0433329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf37a…2171backed Yes6c705.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fb0…abf8backed Yes2c675$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x631e…c5a9backed Yes2c670$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes14c621.31$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.15812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8837…f23abacked Yes18c599.72$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x804f…5eb1backed Yes15c584.97$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0037…be55backed Yes10c561.66$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd431…87c1backed Yes6c540.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+93.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x53cd…2c39backed Yes3c499.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3cb…56b5backed Yes15c499.48$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes9c482.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes24c480$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b2…b602backed Yes8c475$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf215…9114backed No78c424.32$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db3…5aeebacked Yes17c420.17$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes13c412$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.793616.7%6 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-45.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e4f…b01abacked Yes26c377.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fb…2771backed Yes28c351.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes16c343.27$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc00a…c76ebacked No67c332.34$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ae…3327backed Yes30c323.14$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x247d…7d27backed Yes16c318.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes4c303.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.061154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.31per pick24cpaid+331.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked No76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed9…2dc6backed No76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1589…a55fbacked Yes5c291.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae6…79e7backed Yes7c284.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e94…7745backed No75c279.72$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes19c274.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.67238.7%2 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-61.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c5e…c96dbacked Yes15c273.33$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd65e…2692backed Yes29c260$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a61…0285backed Yes8c240.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes13c239$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05a0…d86cbacked Yes8c230.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes15c214.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.164316.3%7 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-55.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302020%4 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-64.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7ed…e6b7backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2545…8e07backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x866c…35f6backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed No75c200$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e77…e626backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee0c…fba3backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd95f…486abacked Yes11c190.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked Yes10c187.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.34714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-62.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6af…d83fbacked No65c167.93$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a6…6db3backed Yes13c151.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c8…e402backed No79c150$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes10c145$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.15540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+49.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfceb…37dabacked Yes33c139.45$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ada…51bcbacked No77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes21c110.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.720422.1%45 W · 159 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.