Us Politics · resolved market
Trump's sovereign wealth fund acquires Bitcoin before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5535df37390e6320079cc8334ed875c2c608ea72f3465e19094d376d1951885f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 17c | 3,471$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.93 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,438$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.13 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 1,869$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…7703backed Yes | 14c | 1,791$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b7…1d81backed Yes | 2c | 1,729$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 1c | 1,586$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 6c | 1,526$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…09febacked Yes | 14c | 1,438$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cd…b876backed Yes | 20c | 1,430$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef43…7b62backed Yes | 15c | 1,349$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.23 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 16c | 1,185$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.41 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,181$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 17c | 1,027$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7d…d5ddbacked Yes | 22c | 1,001$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810c…0a4fbacked Yes | 8c | 713.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…a0e7backed Yes | 11c | 679$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7855…5c68backed Yes | 6c | 583.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 14c | 571.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…b074backed Yes | 20c | 568.43$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 20c | 547.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 80c | 499.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…71cbbacked Yes | 11c | 496.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 12c | 465.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 9c | 450$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7799…ad20backed Yes | 16c | 379.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…ef38backed Yes | 15c | 359.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6d…6659backed Yes | 9c | 350$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…4541backed Yes | 14c | 348.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 77c | 307.69$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 23c | 306.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 9c | 305.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 296.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf061…2572backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…c95dbacked Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 12c | 248.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 204.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked Yes | 9c | 202$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c48…27f6backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a2…6414backed Yes | 25c | 198.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…609ebacked Yes | 14c | 175$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 15c | 146.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…6869backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 15c | 141.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…4925backed Yes | 7c | 140$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed No | 79c | 139$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…7fd4backed Yes | 16c | 129.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…e62abacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…f427backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c8…e78bbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 12c | 110.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3670…18e8backed Yes | 9c | 110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…72afbacked Yes | 19c | 104.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb553…88cebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…51f9backed Yes | 16c | 96.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86b…a5ecbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad09…01c7backed Yes | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 77c | 69.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa55…ef43backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.