TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$111,260
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$92,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,260 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd2b…8e50backed No3c15,162$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.987146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked No7c13,022$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.622035%7 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+53.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked No10c8,053$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.254522.2%10 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-63.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x092f…18acbacked No1c7,176$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No9c7,146$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.313859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked No11c3,899$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.283625%9 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb71a…6fc9backed No31c3,483$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.891838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-34.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad85…78fcbacked No37c2,849$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.811020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf1…1e9bbacked No4c2,500$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.671513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-81.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No4c2,222$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8e6…4f7fbacked Yes72c2,025$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.91070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No2c1,634$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.837338.4%28 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No5c1,324$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc018…018abacked No21c1,207$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.11315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-35.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked No25c1,160$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.021723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x410a…e8b8backed Yes65c1,090$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.42850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No4c1,070$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0228320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fd3…ef31backed No4c1,027$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10380%0 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8933…1495backed Yes77c838.09$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.79850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6426…bb53backed Yes65c826.07$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.07837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48e3…03ccbacked No38c784.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b2…ffd0backed No23c721.36$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.8770%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No16c639.38$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6219436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c54…bd19backed No6c605.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.141216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes64c600$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21616943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed No21c566.56$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.613318.2%6 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-56.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes64c554.99$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.6923149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked No11c543.6$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.225514.5%8 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-58.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed Yes50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x538a…bd78backed No2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes79c499$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.666251.6%32 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes70c444.15$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3637844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes62c440$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.082835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f7…1643backed No3c427.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes68c414.72$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.4215032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1169248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1d…b57fbacked No11c395.73$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.593625%9 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc89d…f5adbacked Yes77c388.81$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.811070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d57…bd62backed No8c358.77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.23435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf599…2cbabacked No6c329.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No3c322$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1711940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaaf5…adbebacked No34c299.86$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.44812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-73.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No31c296$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.031,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f85…9adcbacked No4c292.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0590…256bbacked No37c265.95$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992313%3 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-77.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4be8…e00abacked No16c260.79$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.02633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-51.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No20c252.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2516144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked No29c251.89$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0514843.2%64 W · 84 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes56c217.54$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.7610749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b69…e32abacked Yes74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.53432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed No7c186.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.35922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-37.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4290…7eb0backed No28c184.84$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb8…7c0fbacked No33c156.19$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-68.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe837…739fbacked No51c153.76$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.021216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-77.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0af4…89b4backed No15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed No33c147.41$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.342025%5 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-56.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c0d…d3eebacked No26c141.16$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked No34c140$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.62524%6 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5629…64bebacked No16c133$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1836…db98backed Yes73c128.44$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes75c125.78$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8313818.1%25 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes68c125.73$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.233046.7%14 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3914…51d7backed Yes70c120$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x210a…d04ebacked Yes70c114.28$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.281450%7 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ae…1dafbacked No15c113.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56cf…5697backed No17c102.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c49…ee5dbacked No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef0…0213backed Yes63c90$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.732250%11 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes66c85.89$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5112736.2%46 W · 81 L-17.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xcab3…4288backed No35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+146.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa63d…7c74backed Yes69c79.08$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1501…6623backed No31c79.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed No30c74.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.354346.5%20 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3519435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x871a…7be4backed No34c59.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fdf…3b40backed No32c59.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb090…14c7backed No28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.08837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa743…6a3ebacked Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa24d…e885backed Yes70c49.48$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc30c…6509backed No48c47.68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.892744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+720.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7ed…5707backed No25c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.331735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid+4.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07d1…05a0backed No35c42.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-77.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes78c40.21$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.656065%39 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed Yes58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.85358.5%31 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38cd…a557backed Yes64c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.525147.1%24 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x397a…4d70backed No33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a67…a78ebacked Yes61c36.87$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.344037.5%15 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes66c34.29$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.17850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a0…4e12backed No36c29.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.452630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff71…74bfbacked Yes71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.17633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-48.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes68c26.36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.362630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb919…5213backed Yes55c26.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb4…3b72backed Yes66c23.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16a…3c93backed Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.83740.5%15 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69b5…0703backed Yes62c18.63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.