AI · resolved market
DeepSeek banned in US before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbe4deaea904b36722e738e31ea8c0d408c0a20a7372702a6f024830f5f6467f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 19c | 6,877$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 18c | 6,539$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,832$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 14c | 3,699$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed Yes | 10c | 2,834$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,664$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Yes | 17c | 2,344$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 10c | 2,269$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.51 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 2,164$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 9c | 1,800$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.3 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed Yes | 16c | 1,789$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,684$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,629$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea15…c292backed Yes | 20c | 1,450$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7b…0d2bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,395$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 18c | 1,239$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.43 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc57d…12b5backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded3…9095backed Yes | 15c | 920.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed Yes | 23c | 800.64$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7007…00aabacked Yes | 17c | 716.61$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes | 18c | 699.98$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…6fddbacked Yes | 15c | 674.73$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…e2ffbacked Yes | 16c | 650$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…8b82backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yes | 21c | 613$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 553.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1148…5527backed Yes | 18c | 546.89$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 2c | 523.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes | 21c | 463.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…20dabacked Yes | 14c | 458.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 4c | 429.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 17c | 370.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd74e…045dbacked Yes | 15c | 349.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50af…0693backed Yes | 23c | 326.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…a993backed Yes | 12c | 324.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed No | 78c | 323.4$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4287…17afbacked Yes | 17c | 301.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…dd4cbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 16c | 299.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9445…0dfebacked Yes | 18c | 291.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 279.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…efd9backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c5…2336backed Yes | 15c | 275.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 15c | 273.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 244.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 5c | 238.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 8c | 235.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 14c | 222$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a1…5f52backed Yes | 22c | 209.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 8c | 198.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…c8bfbacked Yes | 21c | 180.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 15c | 178.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…e6b4backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e52…fefbbacked Yes | 10c | 150.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fae…ce9fbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 15c | 137.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9d58backed Yes | 19c | 121$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf321…a368backed Yes | 16c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422f…ca01backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…69e5backed Yes | 50c | 119.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 115.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…fcb7backed Yes | 21c | 115.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 15c | 102.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc1…ca19backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…1863backed Yes | 15c | 93.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 50c | 89.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0924…7be7backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…aaaabacked Yes | 12c | 82.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5420…a717backed Yes | 22c | 75.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…9538backed Yes | 22c | 72.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c3…710ebacked Yes | 15c | 67.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…56f3backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…b6b5backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…a190backed Yes | 19c | 55.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1c…60d9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 75c | 26.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.