Will Na Kyung-won be elected the next president of South Korea?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8598ade2dbdb1f1fab97ad9c8fd9db737b0163536692164fa3e0326bd60e795

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 3, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,259,438
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $816,286

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,259,438 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x022e…2a77backed Yes	0c	186,663$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.79	80	25%20 W · 60 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+187.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbe…4ef3backed Yes	1c	181,418$1,297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,296.82	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-73%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes	0c	168,057$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560.26	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ea…9b24backed Yes	0c	124,565$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.54	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf18d…9863backed Yes	0c	121,896$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.45	78	16.7%13 W · 65 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf7…6bffbacked Yes	1c	120,918$725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725.24	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-54%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51e9…c658backed Yes	1c	115,097$741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$740.51	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	+2.4wins	+0.11per pick	21cpaid	+94.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	89	5.6%5 W · 84 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-90.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a45…d5f8backed Yes	0c	97,334$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.4	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	9cpaid	-95.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes	0c	83,659$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.35	412	1%4 W · 408 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+171.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3c…b218backed Yes	0c	80,782$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.39	63	31.7%20 W · 43 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40d2…b150backed Yes	0c	54,349$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.1	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-63.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	0c	50,104$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.31	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6641…4a1abacked Yes	0c	50,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3aa8…3f8cbacked Yes	0c	50,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c0f…0d68backed Yes	0c	43,000$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-81.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5898…5028backed Yes	0c	35,008$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.02	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcb2…16c5backed Yes	0c	31,899$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.94	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	20cpaid	-83.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Yes	0c	23,199$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+3.4wins	+0.17per pick	38cpaid	+28%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb7f4…5781backed Yes	0c	21,284$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.67	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eee…2782backed Yes	0c	20,331$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.33	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde47…2019backed Yes	0c	20,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9977…3020backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes	0c	18,152$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	452	1.1%5 W · 447 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+156.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes	0c	15,999$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	62	29%18 W · 44 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8951…43efbacked Yes	1c	15,664$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.07	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	0c	15,138$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.72	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	1c	12,711$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+39.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2220…9c74backed Yes	1c	11,802$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.81	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…00f3backed Yes	0c	11,510$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9d…c4fbbacked Yes	0c	10,980$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9eb9…0eb9backed Yes	0c	10,870$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2764…3ca0backed Yes	0c	10,550$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.55	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x638f…089dbacked Yes	0c	10,540$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58b5…7340backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	24	25%6 W · 18 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	+140.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb937…9d0dbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d8f…bcebbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a19…09a6backed Yes	0c	8,349$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.28	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2489…3383backed Yes	1c	7,205$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.03	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13dd…b2b7backed Yes	1c	6,688$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd97b…0c86backed Yes	1c	6,653$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.02	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes	1c	6,072$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.36	68	4.4%3 W · 65 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+417.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8065…b925backed Yes	0c	6,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2cb…3bbdbacked Yes	1c	5,812$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.12	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+102.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	44	22.7%10 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c21…d2febacked Yes	1c	4,190$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.14	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…064bbacked Yes	0c	4,083$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.34	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee4…9674backed Yes	1c	3,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe0…f44bbacked Yes	1c	2,798$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.49	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x084e…8635backed Yes	1c	2,373$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.86	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-73.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6e…7b8bbacked Yes	1c	1,620$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b2…0ca0backed Yes	1c	1,029$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4580…abf8backed Yes	1c	999.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Na Kyung-won be elected the next president of South Korea?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event