Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x631da48bd19e6259301be57529cc0442b8f872b64fe1e75620f7f10b27dd82b7

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 3, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,049,073
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $514,791

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,049,073 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2b6b…3e7abacked Yes	0c	489,791$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb90…ad7fbacked Yes	2c	170,000$3,249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,249.27	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2768…e6c9backed Yes	0c	162,995$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525.77	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2876…c4b2backed Yes	1c	127,980$1,869 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,869.42	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	15cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes	1c	112,952$1,014 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,014.05	80	25%20 W · 60 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+187.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes	0c	105,000$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	89	5.6%5 W · 84 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-90.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a45…d5f8backed Yes	1c	50,123$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709.47	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	9cpaid	-95.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x983e…c6e6backed Yes	2c	50,000$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d3…18cdbacked Yes	0c	40,400$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.27	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3314…65a3backed Yes	1c	30,646$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.83	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	2c	30,228$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.69	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x832f…ef80backed Yes	2c	24,470$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$429.17	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-76.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bc6…c936backed Yes	2c	23,876$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.81	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+4.2wins	+0.14per pick	34cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa699…785fbacked Yes	2c	22,351$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.47	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd2…d6fdbacked Yes	2c	20,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.53	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb56b…a2d2backed Yes	1c	15,348$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.31	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+3.4wins	+0.17per pick	13cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes	2c	13,133$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.81	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes	0c	10,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	68	4.4%3 W · 65 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+417.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ef4…5f24backed Yes	1c	10,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	7cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ab0…3b33backed Yes	1c	10,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.23per pick	11cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ac…3e1ebacked Yes	2c	10,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-89%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe138…8448backed Yes	12c	8,117$977 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$976.6	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce82…b52ebacked Yes	3c	8,002$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.73	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff9e…56a1backed Yes	1c	6,138$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.74	65	36.9%24 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3aa8…3f8cbacked Yes	2c	5,223$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf51c…f64fbacked Yes	2c	5,086$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c51…e2a1backed Yes	2c	4,559$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.62	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a4c…d411backed Yes	2c	4,500$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1c2…c25fbacked Yes	2c	3,787$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.34	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6641…4a1abacked Yes	3c	3,214$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28be…405fbacked Yes	1c	3,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9edb…9f05backed Yes	1c	2,580$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.06	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	2,447$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.58	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x084e…8635backed Yes	1c	2,338$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.05	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-73.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e13…b1d4backed Yes	1c	2,010$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.13	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	8cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,759$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.99	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd28a…c501backed Yes	2c	1,304$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x487c…7795backed Yes	2c	1,101$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.92	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	24cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No	55c	1,094$597 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$496.5	118	50.8%60 W · 58 L	+29.2wins	+0.25per pick	26cpaid	+132.4%equal weight	73+0.20 edge/pick
0xa779…f660backed Yes	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9464…bd9fbacked Yes	1c	1,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-4.7wins	-0.22per pick	27cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x76d9…7d09backed Yes	2c	999.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea2a…683cbacked Yes	1c	999.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56a4…bd24backed Yes	2c	782.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5898…5028backed Yes	3c	733.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.54	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dbf…ec66backed Yes	3c	588.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event