World Politics · resolved market
Will Kim Kyoung-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cf398a65f9ba9de261de2e92fe3007e56b98eef52b7486c522c4daacc882f42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,647,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $919,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,647,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6028…10eebacked Yes | 0c | 506,850$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.3 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 0c | 435,873$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.75 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf215…ded6backed Yes | 0c | 336,751$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.29 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…f272backed Yes | 0c | 209,864$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.72 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 199,631$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.03 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10c1…9deebacked Yes | 0c | 190,970$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.97 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 175,939$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…a167backed Yes | 0c | 117,230$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.77 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +344.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 0c | 105,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 89 | 5.6%5 W · 84 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 0c | 100,345$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…f92bbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 0c | 93,856$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 86,409$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 0c | 75,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd556…d4c9backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…353abacked Yes | 0c | 44,068$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 0c | 41,604$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…6051backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2f…a51abacked Yes | 0c | 37,760$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Yes | 0c | 36,728$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…5a32backed Yes | 0c | 30,002$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf63…5a4cbacked Yes | 0c | 25,067$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…d2febacked Yes | 0c | 23,633$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 0c | 22,052$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Yes | 0c | 19,043$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe844…fe1abacked Yes | 0c | 19,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…4ef3backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…da55backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7d…420fbacked Yes | 1c | 9,925$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 0c | 9,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 0c | 7,720$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…5028backed Yes | 0c | 6,831$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…b52ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,479$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…61e7backed Yes | 2c | 6,448$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 0c | 4,693$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…0186backed Yes | 1c | 1,639$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kim Kyoung-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?this page
- Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Cho Kuk be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Hwang Kyo-ahn be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Kim Boo-kyum be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Kim Dong-yeon be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Kwon Yeong-guk be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?Yes won
- Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Lee Nak-yon be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Na Kyung-won be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Won Hee-ryong be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Yoo Seong-min be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.