World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Nak-yon be elected the next president of South Korea?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d711bcfe9890cdd10c72971ff84fa238a74eddfb1979d001a40601528ba3fc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,753,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $951,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,753,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 0c | 1,229,191$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.19 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed Yes | 0c | 553,355$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.36 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0f…0d68backed Yes | 0c | 382,796$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Yes | 0c | 299,924$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.92 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f5…3e59backed Yes | 0c | 283,979$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.42 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 278,283$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.28 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…0587backed Yes | 0c | 188,589$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…3923backed Yes | 0c | 150,316$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…3e92backed Yes | 0c | 121,880$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…9c74backed Yes | 0c | 120,689$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.72 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 115,240$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.35 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 0c | 105,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 89 | 5.6%5 W · 84 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a45…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 100,139$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.01 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -95.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 95,552$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…b1d4backed Yes | 0c | 95,188$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10c1…9deebacked Yes | 0c | 91,551$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d1…5bcfbacked Yes | 1c | 74,794$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 70,612$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ab…4f12backed Yes | 0c | 70,352$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…e6b9backed Yes | 0c | 60,930$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6028…10eebacked Yes | 0c | 57,705$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…f272backed Yes | 0c | 40,891$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…a2d2backed Yes | 0c | 38,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa8…3f8cbacked Yes | 0c | 36,423$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0885…fb4bbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…9a38backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…8d02backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +220.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…ecc4backed Yes | 0c | 19,526$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 0c | 14,306$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8f…bcebbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed50…9e1fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +417.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783f…8195backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…e623backed Yes | 0c | 6,930$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…7e65backed Yes | 0c | 5,420$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474e…9b94backed Yes | 0c | 3,727$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 57c | 232.93$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.46 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 61c | 124.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Nak-yon be elected the next president of South Korea?this page
- Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Cho Kuk be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Hwang Kyo-ahn be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Kim Boo-kyum be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Kim Dong-yeon be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Kim Kyoung-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Kwon Yeong-guk be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?Yes won
- Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Na Kyung-won be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Won Hee-ryong be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Yoo Seong-min be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
- Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.