MLB · resolved market
Rays vs. Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0382815f1a275552cbf14582872047ce799acae9707838555ee830db7222a5c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yankeesof Rays, Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rays | 31c | 5,498$1,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.35 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Yankees | 69c | 4,073$2,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.52 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rays | 31c | 3,991$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.17 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Yankees | 69c | 3,820$2,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.3 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Rays | 31c | 2,786$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.69 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Yankees | 67c | 2,329$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.69 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Yankees | 68c | 1,617$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.31 | 1,361 | 50.8%691 W · 670 L | +13.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rays | 32c | 1,485$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.27 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Yankees | 69c | 1,449$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.33 | 178 | 66.3%118 W · 60 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Yankees | 69c | 869.65$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.65 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Rays | 33c | 787.88$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Rays | 31c | 761.65$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.11 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Rays | 31c | 724.64$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.64 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…e8cbbacked Rays | 24c | 645.88$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.8 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Rays | 33c | 596.97$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…721bbacked Yankees | 69c | 538$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.78 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Rays | 31c | 516$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Rays | 31c | 505.11$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.17 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Rays | 31c | 499.98$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.99 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Rays | 32c | 463.91$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.45 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Yankees | 69c | 449.07$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.07 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yankees | 69c | 400.88$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.33 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yankees | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yankees | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…4a1abacked Rays | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Rays | 32c | 311.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yankees | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 925 | 50.1%463 W · 462 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yankees | 69c | 225.08$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Rays | 33c | 221.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Rays | 31c | 187$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rays | 29c | 177.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Rays | 7c | 151$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Rays | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8896…7d78backed Yankees | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yankees | 70c | 142.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Rays | 31c | 129$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Rays | 32c | 109.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Rays | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Yankees | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Yankees | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Rays | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Rays | 32c | 46.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yankees | 70c | 44.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2,064 | 53.8%1,110 W · 954 L | +32.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Yankees | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Rays | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Rays | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yankees | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Yankees | 68c | 35.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Rays | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Yankees | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yankees | 72c | 18.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.