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World Politics · resolved market

Will Hong Joon-pyo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$623,050
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$572,520

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $623,050 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7616…69eebacked Yes22c83,576$18,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,446.175431.5%17 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed Yes30c36,489$10,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,838.5120538%78 W · 127 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab92…50d3backed Yes35c26,422$9,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,247.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f6f…d295backed No65c26,422$17,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,247.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No72c24,392$17,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,758.015664.3%36 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes16c18,549$3,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,017.975414.8%8 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…65e2backed Yes16c15,736$2,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,504.041637.5%6 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+105%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe145…62ecbacked Yes37c12,276$4,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,545.06728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-45%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff9e…56a1backed Yes28c12,172$3,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,461.846536.9%24 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdec2…b04abacked Yes21c10,779$2,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,237.692623.1%6 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-60.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d86…d560backed Yes30c8,740$2,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6211947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-31.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked No72c7,794$5,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,217.753551.4%18 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c93…4e2fbacked Yes28c7,431$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.041546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+71.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3441…fe36backed No65c7,049$4,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,472.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb8…f4f1backed Yes30c6,608$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.511163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66cc…a735backed Yes18c6,500$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick36cpaid-84.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes29c5,953$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,715.878025%20 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+187.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87fa…3341backed Yes24c5,466$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.76616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-64.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4520…65b0backed Yes33c5,405$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,761.5670%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4155backed Yes29c5,373$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.448341%34 W · 49 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d20…8490backed Yes20c5,327$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.041136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No71c4,984$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.1957636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc3c…b218backed Yes32c4,303$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.696331.7%20 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf082…a593backed Yes16c4,212$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.52633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+47%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8752…d602backed Yes17c3,900$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-61.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3af3…75ebbacked Yes34c3,752$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.133122.6%7 W · 24 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-40.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x91d1…c60abacked Yes35c3,612$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e79…b2d0backed Yes36c3,414$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.041942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c3,093$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.16883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c21…d2febacked Yes25c3,048$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.873831.6%12 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47a0…1de0backed Yes38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1401136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-42.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd17e…0868backed Yes35c2,735$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.662532%8 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed No77c2,724$2,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.855238.5%20 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55c1…238dbacked Yes36c2,669$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.82616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa779…f660backed Yes19c2,405$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.751127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa750…b6c2backed Yes22c2,208$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.21825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes29c2,151$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.6637117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes14c2,140$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.2631443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff49…69f5backed Yes13c2,131$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.021127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick10cpaid+235.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc366…adc4backed Yes15c2,114$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a45…d5f8backed Yes20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400293.4%1 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-95.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaae…eb7ebacked Yes17c1,988$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedff…9559backed Yes17c1,965$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1601…2841backed Yes40c1,908$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.27862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2791…3923backed No62c1,887$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.471233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18d…9863backed Yes16c1,797$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.57816.7%13 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aae…483cbacked Yes30c1,787$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.181338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-44.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes21c1,715$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.8527828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes4c1,609$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.344231%13 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes22c1,598$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.3756314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe199…5d36backed Yes19c1,516$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b06…846dbacked No75c1,480$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73b9…ecc4backed Yes23c1,454$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.782114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+100.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d7a…b5f7backed No64c1,446$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.391225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-38.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50c1…016cbacked Yes34c1,402$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+56.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x073a…e4eabacked Yes15c1,400$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.940%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bc9…f272backed Yes11c1,351$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.31625%4 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed No71c1,326$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.253614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6641…4a1abacked Yes15c1,322$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002725.9%7 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5215…e0d2backed Yes17c1,304$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.72714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-69%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1020…3aacbacked Yes10c1,297$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.631414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-74.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x73de…c416backed Yes37c1,294$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4455…f9c0backed Yes38c1,283$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.2480%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40d2…b150backed Yes28c1,100$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3101010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-63.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x621c…907ebacked Yes24c1,032$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.451435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+78.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6122…ee7cbacked Yes3c1,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4970%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Yes12c999$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.885339.6%21 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x381c…cbafbacked Yes30c983.73$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.471020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-69.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes3c974.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.217227.9%48 W · 124 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8bb…fb35backed Yes38c901.23$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.791241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae7…1884backed Yes34c879.44$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.93040%12 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c839.67$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.2689448.3%432 W · 462 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes34c837.78$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.844422.7%10 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-40.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9edb…9f05backed Yes28c800$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2241533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c8a…d888backed Yes28c788.17$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.82744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes37c750$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2776021.7%13 W · 47 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaef2…4c00backed Yes26c750$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56cc…a60abacked Yes26c701.5$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae06…8acebacked Yes29c700$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2035141.2%21 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde77…04d2backed Yes25c680$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes22c669.64$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.617524.6%43 W · 132 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa698…f763backed Yes32c664.25$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes21c663.01$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.771,34444.3%595 W · 749 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x113e…3febbacked Yes24c660$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9352…cab5backed No76c660$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.43100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb504…44f5backed Yes33c599.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick28cpaid-82.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaba9…a356backed No65c574.52$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.08650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd2…2b28backed Yes20c512.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0669…7345backed Yes36c511.74$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.23666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c510.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.491,43710.2%147 W · 1,290 L-4.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c506.93$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.791,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x246c…d49cbacked No67c430.68$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.98475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+36.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06c6…9bc5backed Yes17c410$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+70.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes29c404$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.7716612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7994…a467backed Yes33c400.91$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.31250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b6f…0f0cbacked Yes15c392.97$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.95425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes24c314.24$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4645021.1%95 W · 355 L-21.9wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x377c…6a69backed Yes36c305.56$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1116920.3%14 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x417a…9784backed Yes19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.