World Politics · resolved market
Will Oh Se-hoon be the People's Power Party candidate for president?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86a97f9d561c9478fe88ee97c1049f7139cbc353a3261dd153d11e58733df59a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 16,874$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 12,451$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e9…c658backed Yes | 7c | 4,513$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.18 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a45…d5f8backed Yes | 7c | 4,417$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.18 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -95.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 7c | 3,766$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.82 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2876…c4b2backed Yes | 6c | 3,044$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…4a1abacked Yes | 8c | 2,409$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 2,220$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…75ebbacked Yes | 8c | 1,891$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.18 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…1a9ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,464$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad9…d1f4backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf13…690abacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 4c | 832.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 550.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b71…baeebacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 478.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 416$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f27…baadbacked Yes | 7c | 280.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oh Se-hoon be the People's Power Party candidate for president?this page
- Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
- Will Han Dong-hoon be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
- Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
- Will Hong Joon-pyo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
- Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?Yes won
- Will Lee Jun-seok be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
- Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
- Will Won Hee-ryong be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
- Will Yoo Seong-min be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
- Will Yoon Suk Yeol be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.