TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,780,140
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,824,418

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,780,140 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x76bb…b3b7backed Yes0c10,092,160$10,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,092.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab55…df2abacked Yes0c3,094,124$5,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,938.51533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a22…e34cbacked Yes0c1,843,494$1,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,843.49633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd4…f3b6backed Yes1c1,721,491$25,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,540.052737%10 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe965…6559backed Yes0c993,790$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.791216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid+48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f5…2090backed Yes0c209,420$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a45…d5f8backed Yes1c205,588$1,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,882.7293.4%1 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-95.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9297…e0ccbacked Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-71.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa847…88a5backed Yes0c176,000$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-87%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc1a…e489backed Yes0c175,074$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.07425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe138…8448backed Yes7c161,991$10,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,626.53944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f0…fe05backed Yes2c156,185$3,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,229.185817.2%10 W · 48 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Yes2c139,512$2,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,822.255431.5%17 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde77…04d2backed Yes0c131,000$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1311233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda0b…f4f6backed Yes1c106,065$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+30.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3303…b5e3backed Yes0c103,890$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.891118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6028…10eebacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2cb…3bbdbacked Yes0c100,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.981225%3 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+102.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d2a…d14ebacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016029.4%47 W · 113 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011428.9%33 W · 81 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfad7…d4adbacked Yes0c99,900$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecc2…3bf3backed Yes0c99,251$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c96,046$4,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,742.576883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes4c86,755$3,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,658.622740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes0c80,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802611.5%3 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-77.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…ac39backed Yes0c79,450$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes0c77,777$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.786726.9%18 W · 49 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81ae…7126backed Yes4c77,268$3,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,027.581020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+416.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes1c72,500$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.76238.7%24 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+102.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c62…5d44backed Yes1c68,821$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.22433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-34.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed Yes0c60,300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.056040%24 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9587…8a10backed Yes0c60,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60277.4%2 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x95f7…6c70backed Yes0c56,100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.11729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fd0…8bc2backed Yes0c51,603$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.42035%7 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x930a…30a5backed Yes0c50,910$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d0…65f1backed Yes0c50,806$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.171926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed Yes1c49,811$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.6220538%78 W · 127 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e68…5472backed Yes6c47,065$2,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,673.031656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…9a58backed Yes0c46,700$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff17…970bbacked Yes4c46,306$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.31425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+71.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x107c…491bbacked Yes0c41,821$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9443…e5ecbacked Yes2c35,076$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46aa…690ebacked Yes1c32,858$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.741520%3 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5d3…29e1backed Yes0c30,924$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.374035%14 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes0c30,660$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.663417.6%6 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick8cpaid+152.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa934…c6fabacked Yes1c30,348$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-70.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe85e…2aebbacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…31e9backed Yes0c28,850$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.06837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3f9…4206backed Yes1c28,642$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.291050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-19.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac1…6b06backed Yes2c27,799$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.671421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-32.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d20…8490backed Yes1c26,991$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.781136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7584…d6e6backed Yes0c26,069$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.181435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick18cpaid+35.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x690c…f733backed Yes0c26,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd2…2518backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15a9…8f82backed Yes0c22,800$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8181…92b8backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a1…4209backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x761d…0687backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-58.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes1c19,608$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.153511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-79.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e98…ae0fbacked Yes4c18,119$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.242429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+67.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbe…e790backed Yes8c17,912$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.542040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8764…069dbacked Yes0c16,782$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7850%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x310e…5050backed Yes5c15,903$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.251233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x832f…ef80backed Yes1c15,643$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.963212.5%4 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7bc…504abacked Yes11c15,276$1,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.79825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa066…bfd4backed Yes4c15,120$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.092313%3 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-40.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…c83dbacked Yes0c14,990$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13dd…b2b7backed Yes4c14,094$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6101717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7315…ddb2backed Yes0c13,925$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f48…bf49backed Yes1c13,821$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x570d…3d72backed Yes7c13,688$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c13,365$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.414521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes0c12,401$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.942218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-38.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c12,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x474e…9b94backed Yes0c11,866$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6990%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfda6…4eddbacked Yes1c11,769$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.85944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…b8a4backed Yes2c11,459$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4a7…9ddcbacked Yes4c11,027$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.22520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-64.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87fa…3341backed Yes1c10,738$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-64.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes0c10,200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.47123.9%17 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a97…3964backed Yes1c10,200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes5c10,093$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4704117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6780…e6babacked Yes1c10,013$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.242825%7 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf921…94dbbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102128.6%6 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb78a…6291backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aaf…1f8ebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102828.6%8 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+28.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ef0…f55dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101040%4 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+471.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3872…f162backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78c8…0a0fbacked Yes2c9,467$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdec2…b04abacked Yes4c9,160$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.942623.1%6 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-60.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa414…75c9backed Yes4c7,296$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.151421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+239.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Yes0c7,248$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.55339.6%21 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ea1…c0e4backed Yes6c7,155$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.251216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-59.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2220…9c74backed Yes3c6,924$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.03200%0 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe238…27b3backed Yes1c6,355$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.651513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick20cpaid+6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes0c5,805$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.095414.8%8 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19bb…a23dbacked Yes2c5,657$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.