World Politics · resolved market
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4293b61cada7a21eb003045bc5712fc9107e3ccad736e11b0e1f0da42c95e8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $277,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 2c | 43,078$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.99 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…4ef3backed Yes | 3c | 36,635$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.5 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 2c | 14,400$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.16 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed Yes | 2c | 12,417$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.64 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 10,907$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.65 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1020…3aacbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a45…d5f8backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -95.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 0c | 9,573$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,865$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.63 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,659$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…a467backed Yes | 4c | 5,928$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…9249backed Yes | 2c | 4,889$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…47a8backed Yes | 4c | 3,265$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 3,006$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…4e2fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,871$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…9c74backed Yes | 2c | 2,733$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…d2febacked Yes | 3c | 2,062$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,951$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 3c | 1,402$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e9…c658backed Yes | 1c | 1,180$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed Yes | 1c | 1,029$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 864.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 2c | 824.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 783$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97b…0c86backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc5…261ebacked Yes | 5c | 373.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…e740backed Yes | 5c | 337.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd1…65d3backed Yes | 3c | 316.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president?this page
- Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
- Will Han Dong-hoon be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
- Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
- Will Hong Joon-pyo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
- Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?Yes won
- Will Lee Jun-seok be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
- Will Oh Se-hoon be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
- Will Won Hee-ryong be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
- Will Yoo Seong-min be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
- Will Yoon Suk Yeol be the People's Power Party candidate for president?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.