Golf · resolved market
Will J.J. Spaun win The 2025 U.S. Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc27a52949b43794d61053f1fe550c5e38d5267359f2f077774c26b36eeb3d15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $540,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $552,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $540,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Golf | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Yes | 38c | 25,000$9,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,502.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Yes | 26c | 23,461$6,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,296.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 57c | 21,970$12,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,356.62 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked No | 28c | 16,593$4,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,659.68 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fe…d475backed Yes | 19c | 10,520$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,521.2 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 59c | 7,287$4,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,012.87 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 19c | 6,500$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,265 | 233 | 19.3%45 W · 188 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4318backed Yes | 78c | 5,000$3,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 55c | 4,673$2,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,566.51 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed Yes | 42c | 3,343$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,929.09 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed No | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 76c | 2,433$1,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.21 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Yes | 18c | 2,052$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,682.56 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eab…b026backed Yes | 5c | 2,010$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,909.88 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +101%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 30c | 1,585$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.6 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 35c | 1,533$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.87 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Yes | 58c | 1,335$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.47 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked No | 80c | 910.9$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.72 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…8938backed Yes | 7c | 900$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +195.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 11c | 900$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 11c | 900$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +1,166.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1421…644bbacked Yes | 23c | 691.09$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.61 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855f…cfb0backed Yes | 20c | 625$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…6df6backed Yes | 9c | 573.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.33 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa677…7d76backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.32 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf094…6fd5backed Yes | 39c | 508.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6713…3878backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1323…6008backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…2983backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 18c | 490$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.4 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…18a1backed No | 27c | 447$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 15c | 401.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.36 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…d51dbacked No | 27c | 400$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb907…63f2backed Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.53 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed No | 30c | 170.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9924…bec3backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…4b3ebacked Yes | 22c | 160$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked No | 24c | 142$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.6 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed No | 41c | 125$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…c14ebacked Yes | 22c | 115.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d34…b998backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…79a4backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6567…05fabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +390.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b4…1cbabacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 20c | 57.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…af3bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…8c8ebacked No | 73c | 34.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Yes | 38c | 31.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 72c | 24.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will J.J. Spaun win The 2025 U.S. Open?this page
- Will Adam Scott win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Brooks Koepka win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Bryson DeChambeau win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Cameron Young win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Carlos Ortiz win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Joaquin Niemann win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Jon Rahm win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Russell Henley win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Sahith Theegala win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Sam Burns win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Sungjae Im win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Tom Kim win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Tony Finau win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Tyrrell Hatton win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
- Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 U.S. Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.