St. John's Red Storm vs. Butler Bulldogs

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35d6441819577ec8289fe9f34bb96cbd9d6ddcbbeed885de4504eb04facd5245

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: St. John's Red Stormof St. John's Red Storm, Butler Bulldogs
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,617
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,694

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,617 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd2d5…df2fbacked Butler Bulldogs	40c	1,006$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked St. John's Red Storm	60c	788.2$473 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315.28	318	37.7%120 W · 198 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked St. John's Red Storm	66c	786.67$523 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$263.9	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked St. John's Red Storm	63c	678.09$427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250.89	1,391	44.1%613 W · 778 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ae…f107backed Butler Bulldogs	33c	631.32$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.24	423	27.2%115 W · 308 L	-10.9wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed St. John's Red Storm	66c	557.56$366 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.36	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed St. John's Red Storm	61c	530.53$323 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207.4	2,124	50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L	+40.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Butler Bulldogs	21c	432.83$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.3	1,173	25.2%296 W · 877 L	-43.0wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Butler Bulldogs	37c	420$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.4	820	48.2%395 W · 425 L	+6.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Butler Bulldogs	36c	390.58$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.04	2,579	47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L	-42.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Butler Bulldogs	35c	346.68$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.53	2,048	32.7%670 W · 1,378 L	-16.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a45…41f6backed Butler Bulldogs	37c	327.84$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	114	44.7%51 W · 63 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Butler Bulldogs	35c	299.99$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	181	29.3%53 W · 128 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed St. John's Red Storm	73c	269.09$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.5	735	49.1%361 W · 374 L	-14.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked St. John's Red Storm	72c	239.39$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.53	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed St. John's Red Storm	59c	232.78$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.11	369	42.3%156 W · 213 L	-9.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Butler Bulldogs	28c	222$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.87	149	25.5%38 W · 111 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa2a…f4f7backed Butler Bulldogs	35c	200$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Butler Bulldogs	35c	149.46$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.31	529	28.4%150 W · 379 L	-9.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed St. John's Red Storm	65c	124.08$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.53	1,633	47.3%773 W · 860 L	+25.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Butler Bulldogs	8c	119.97$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	490	43.1%211 W · 279 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce0d…3a64backed St. John's Red Storm	64c	117.66$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.66	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked St. John's Red Storm	66c	100$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	1,951	45.1%880 W · 1,071 L	-19.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Butler Bulldogs	42c	100$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	480	51%245 W · 235 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Butler Bulldogs	38c	100$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	1,260	43.3%545 W · 715 L	+34.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Butler Bulldogs	50c	86.02$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.13	3,905	58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L	+165.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc368…0b4ebacked St. John's Red Storm	63c	83$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.71	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed St. John's Red Storm	64c	77.09$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.75	990	45.6%451 W · 539 L	+9.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed St. John's Red Storm	64c	77$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.72	83	45.8%38 W · 45 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked St. John's Red Storm	64c	72$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.92	69	55.1%38 W · 31 L	+5.3wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Butler Bulldogs	23c	64$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	614	46.1%283 W · 331 L	-8.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72f9…629abacked Butler Bulldogs	37c	54.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed St. John's Red Storm	65c	53.85$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.85	55	45.5%25 W · 30 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed St. John's Red Storm	69c	51.73$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.95	1,985	64.1%1,273 W · 712 L	+144.2wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Butler Bulldogs	37c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	1,070	46.9%502 W · 568 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d67…cf38backed St. John's Red Storm	64c	50$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	49	59.2%29 W · 20 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6c5…0d72backed Butler Bulldogs	28c	42.41$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…de52backed Butler Bulldogs	36c	37$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa554…e53dbacked Butler Bulldogs	36c	35$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b0d…5087backed Butler Bulldogs	36c	33.12$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.92	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.8wins	-0.39per pick	54cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd104…0c60backed Butler Bulldogs	37c	33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.21	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeff8…1bcfbacked St. John's Red Storm	64c	31$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.16	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked St. John's Red Storm	65c	30.77$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.77	4,552	50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L	-36.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1315…d32ebacked Butler Bulldogs	37c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.9wins	-0.21per pick	57cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Butler Bulldogs	36c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83fb…e89bbacked St. John's Red Storm	65c	29.31$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.26	169	52.7%89 W · 80 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed St. John's Red Storm	55c	29$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.05	227	56.4%128 W · 99 L	+18.5wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c34…c8b8backed Butler Bulldogs	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	143	39.9%57 W · 86 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed St. John's Red Storm	55c	23$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.35	194	54.6%106 W · 88 L	+10.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cd1…0b70backed St. John's Red Storm	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	47	70.2%33 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	70cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked St. John's Red Storm	62c	18.42$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7	2,687	48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81bb…8544backed St. John's Red Storm	57c	18$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.74	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-6.1wins	-0.17per pick	46cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed St. John's Red Storm	64c	16.91$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.09	3,380	49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L	+30.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

St. John's Red Storm vs. Butler Bulldogsthis page
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-4.5)St. John's Red Storm won
St. John's Red Storm vs. Butler Bulldogs: O/U 164.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

St. John's Red Storm vs. Butler Bulldogs

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event