NFL · resolved market
Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65996d10a2a0f847fe9bfc18de1ee61bb9489eba2dc1efaf5ea352cf537e51f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2d5…df2fbacked Yes | 26c | 8,411$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,210.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a1…fc84backed Yes | 25c | 5,531$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,130.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 69c | 4,154$2,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.6 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 63c | 2,855$1,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.6 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked No | 76c | 2,503$1,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,902.54 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,067$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.25 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 77c | 999.99$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.99 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff20…2efcbacked Yes | 23c | 878.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 48c | 673$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.3 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Yes | 72c | 668.97$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.72 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 68c | 514.08$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.83 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc441…8722backed Yes | 53c | 507.4$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.4 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…2527backed Yes | 71c | 499.65$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.64 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked No | 15c | 495.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed No | 79c | 479.3$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.65 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cb…9756backed Yes | 23c | 451.04$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed No | 77c | 450$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.5 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 77c | 401$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.77 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 41c | 400.2$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.11 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…1d99backed Yes | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 78c | 358.35$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.15 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 79c | 320$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.3 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Yes | 23c | 320$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.4 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 33c | 318.71$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.16 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 26c | 314.16$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.3 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 66c | 281$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.21 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe366…4249backed Yes | 43c | 232.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…abfebacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…7aafbacked Yes | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed No | 35c | 196.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 28c | 196.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 22c | 189.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.7 | 132 | 17.4%23 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…eb09backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +213.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 77c | 172$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.44 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 21c | 169.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.76 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 72c | 169.09$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 18c | 143.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…4d16backed Yes | 36c | 131.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 125$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…38b2backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4205…128ebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 72c | 93.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 22c | 90.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +167.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 28c | 88.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 47c | 85.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2e…6b43backed Yes | 76c | 68.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…331cbacked Yes | 42c | 53.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 375 | 56.3%211 W · 164 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd29c…609fbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…433fbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1887…ebc9backed Yes | 44c | 45.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed Yes | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c05…36b3backed No | 54c | 44.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 73c | 42.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8be…a268backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 74c | 29.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…db37backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 75c | 23.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 56c | 22.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 72c | 20.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…8322backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 76c | 15.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…2bf8backed Yes | 74c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West?this page
- Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West?No won
- Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the AFC West?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.