NFL · resolved market
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the AFC West?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20f798ae82cc6d281779b74ca4c532e3e7382dbd46859c4037ea5491d80c4993
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b09…4e29backed Yes | 29c | 18,280$5,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,270.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked No | 71c | 12,744$9,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,658.41 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 19c | 5,055$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.92 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 58c | 3,708$2,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165.48 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 61c | 2,383$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.46 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Yes | 23c | 2,026$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,442$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.95 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,211$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.98 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,176$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 79c | 1,100$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.03 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8965…9830backed Yes | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 44cpaid | -81%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.91 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…a861backed Yes | 22c | 972.73$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 15c | 913.58$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.92 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 25c | 894.98$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.32 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 13c | 890.42$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.75 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 10c | 828.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Yes | 62c | 700$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 19c | 678$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.8 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Yes | 10c | 550$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 26c | 538$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.34 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…06a2backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 22c | 403.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.57 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 24c | 348.23$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 72c | 347$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 30c | 325.39$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 16c | 296.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 17c | 280$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 71c | 279.63$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 73c | 273$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…4d16backed Yes | 16c | 253$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 78c | 243.8$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a1…6782backed Yes | 7c | 222.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked No | 39c | 136.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 39c | 136.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed No | 39c | 136.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 39c | 134.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 39c | 134.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed No | 39c | 128.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29dc…75dabacked Yes | 20c | 126.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…c1f4backed Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 132 | 17.4%23 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 102$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 101.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 76c | 101.17$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…1d99backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…7518backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 21c | 98.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +167.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 27c | 93.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 22c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52ed…ca64backed Yes | 23c | 85.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 73c | 78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…8322backed Yes | 18c | 76.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 20c | 76.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe1…7e45backed Yes | 27c | 75.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…ef9bbacked Yes | 34c | 73.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf959…f265backed No | 75c | 73.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 69c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 59.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 71c | 50.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…433fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…7576backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcf…5047backed No | 78c | 25.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd29c…609fbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…9b7abacked No | 78c | 15.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the AFC West?this page
- Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West?Yes won
- Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West?No won
- Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.