NFL · resolved market
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f5d02ceb0e5810f1ebe8fe0f0eacf4cf62224ff28e000d21b5ab89426e5bf6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,195$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,374$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.45 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3483…5eeabacked Yes | 7c | 1,369$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 4c | 1,341$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 2c | 900.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 145 | 32.4%47 W · 98 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 4c | 891.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 1c | 850$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 5c | 750$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 3c | 653.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 4c | 646.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +167.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…8322backed Yes | 3c | 602.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 571$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed Yes | 4c | 427.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Yes | 8c | 155$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West?this page
- Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West?Yes won
- Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the AFC West?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.