TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$451,782
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$460,957

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $451,782 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbf4d…d242backed No47c40,479$19,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,453.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf030…e725backed Yes53c40,479$21,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,453.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45fc…2bf4backed Yes53c35,356$18,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,738.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6eb…1d57backed No47c35,356$16,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,738.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbfc…0382backed Yes53c34,793$18,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,440.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6e3…a24bbacked No47c34,793$16,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,440.292100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fed…89cbbacked No47c34,217$16,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,135.01250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0b…b3dabacked Yes53c34,217$18,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,135.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3684…ebf7backed No47c31,509$14,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,699.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f84…3ed6backed Yes53c31,509$16,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,699.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2b…c5d0backed No65c12,113$7,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,269.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Yes47c12,065$5,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,671.431240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xea95…5420backed Yes55c11,118$6,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,084.69633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-56.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes34c9,398$3,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,237.3716226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb85d…4ac4backed Yes55c5,647$3,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,091.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Yes51c4,737$2,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,415.773435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c4,493$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.975679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No45c2,607$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.927241.7%30 W · 42 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cfc…7f80backed No45c2,222$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.15628.6%16 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c05…36b3backed Yes36c2,133$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7683138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked No50c1,395$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.6110434.6%36 W · 68 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes37c1,351$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006536.9%24 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes39c1,250$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48619638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed No46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54024351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No45c702.92$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.51,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7662…7930backed No68c673.01$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.283253.1%17 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfc4…95a3backed No45c664.92$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.712512%3 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+98%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa86c…6ec8backed No45c630.2$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.615032%16 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid-0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes33c596$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2718336.1%66 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes52c564.32$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.2513217.4%23 W · 109 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+104.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1db1…35a9backed Yes39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1955536.4%20 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked No72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14018051.7%93 W · 87 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10667.6%5 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes44c487$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.520238.6%78 W · 124 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42e2…4d16backed Yes32c478.4$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.15230.8%16 W · 36 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+85.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed No64c428.46$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.3359453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No73c403$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.861369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+62.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e27…0ee1backed Yes54c383.5$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2098647.7%41 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes48c377.22$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.318818.2%16 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb64…5e23backed No63c303.08$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No60c248$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2832347.4%153 W · 170 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3629…85c5backed Yes27c230$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611850%9 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9530…ce5abacked Yes37c222$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.14633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Yes52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1047061.4%43 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1977…32e8backed Yes53c198.12$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10519948.2%96 W · 103 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa35a…2157backed Yes53c187.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-74.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61f0…8a69backed Yes54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No48c165.36$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5541540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b87…274cbacked No45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a08…7ff5backed No64c131.85$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.851361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No56c129$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.58742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+404.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8f…650abacked Yes53c128.3$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-64.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No66c125.28$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.16666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+70.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed No51c114.22$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.972969%20 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+31.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes46c114.01$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.035930.5%18 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd72e…0ae6backed Yes54c111.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5a1…7237backed No48c108.33$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4cb…9756backed Yes44c105.41$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No80c104.23$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3428151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1755345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd20a…b3aebacked No48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f9f…2b84backed No48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c7e…d1d4backed No48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1944…3ffebacked Yes53c103.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb055…9211backed Yes53c101.89$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc50a…c79abacked Yes53c101.89$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dbf…f7f9backed Yes53c101.89$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes51c100.1$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.059947.5%47 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41248.3%2 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick11cpaid+51.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf6b…8979backed Yes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1612050.8%61 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes53c99.97$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.982924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97b6…ed87backed Yes43c95.18$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No49c89.34$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.56977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+94.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee5a…7351backed No48c82.83$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.072100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c37…adf5backed Yes37c81.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.21per pick47cpaid-48.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No50c76.72$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.983262.5%20 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8eeb…a613backed Yes53c75.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74de…5bc5backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59f5…7cfdbacked Yes56c71.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406451.6%33 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc441…8722backed No75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.673732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9850…9062backed Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked No49c57.23$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.193253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked No51c57.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.981450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…c5bfbacked No48c56.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a67…af26backed Yes55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304052.5%21 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x606b…c110backed No48c50.52$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed No47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.512842.2%54 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44db…e66fbacked Yes48c48.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x324a…a785backed Yes53c47.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4814…05ecbacked No48c46.94$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x684e…85b1backed Yes54c46.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea7…9da9backed No48c43.85$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfe…7aafbacked No49c41.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.141346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017741.8%74 W · 103 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.81266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+68.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e08…dfe0backed Yes44c39.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-33.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x350d…b898backed No65c38.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.461330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9672…2acbbacked Yes52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80c5…168abacked Yes54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207345.2%33 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.