TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$890,026
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$531,825

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $890,026 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x646b…5112backed Yes2c36,258$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.31382.6%1 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-83.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes2c32,589$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.4225130.7%77 W · 174 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeba7…85b9backed Yes3c31,059$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes2c28,728$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.0816721%35 W · 132 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd3…41f8backed Yes3c23,228$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002556%14 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+26.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c69…52fdbacked Yes2c23,029$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.92425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes2c22,179$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.71,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes2c21,324$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.08128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-55.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes2c19,851$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.471020%2 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-29.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde2…b8d7backed Yes2c19,649$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes1c17,672$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.4390645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes2c15,000$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.443016.7%5 W · 25 L-7.2wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-69.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xbe3d…0122backed Yes2c13,508$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Yes2c12,777$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.658145.7%37 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ec…81c2backed Yes2c12,500$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.368817%15 W · 73 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1fe…118dbacked Yes2c12,500$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.71333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8932…eb14backed Yes3c10,340$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.72630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdf6…d7f7backed Yes2c9,729$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1755552.7%29 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9094…dcabbacked Yes2c9,665$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.94055%22 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85b9…d1abbacked Yes2c8,886$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-83.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a6…a3b5backed Yes2c8,719$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes1c8,338$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.123420.6%7 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c8,225$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.757626.3%20 W · 56 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533c…2658backed Yes1c7,587$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.681216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-67%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf8f6…a384backed Yes2c7,366$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5380%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x364b…f9bebacked Yes1c7,246$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.88210%0 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd046…c496backed Yes1c7,110$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4810034%34 W · 66 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…8253backed Yes2c6,948$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba92…babfbacked Yes2c6,769$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1311225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked Yes2c6,553$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8236535.9%131 W · 234 L+1.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6140…332dbacked Yes2c6,246$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6980…27cfbacked Yes2c6,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c5,586$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.29147.1%1 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-63.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75f0…7e92backed Yes2c5,531$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.871442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x316b…03c5backed Yes2c5,276$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Yes2c5,023$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10860%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbeff…6fdfbacked Yes2c5,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes0c4,857$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Yes2c4,831$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9217051.2%87 W · 83 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes2c4,377$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.838230.5%25 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-30.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x300d…978fbacked Yes2c4,235$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.763641.7%15 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ebd…700ebacked Yes2c4,012$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x697f…b756backed Yes2c4,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c3,504$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.78190%0 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd35d…a329backed Yes2c3,333$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4a0…bc3cbacked Yes2c3,303$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd594…98c4backed Yes2c3,250$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6580%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes2c3,222$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.431369.6%13 W · 123 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-78.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe12…51d1backed Yes7c3,129$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes2c3,103$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.06170%0 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed16…916ebacked Yes2c3,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6090%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes1c3,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4242934.3%147 W · 282 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,688$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2129012.1%35 W · 255 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Yes2c2,622$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.378350.6%42 W · 41 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2efc…5686backed Yes2c2,484$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.63812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick6cpaid-67.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b85…3dcbbacked Yes3c2,479$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Yes1c2,323$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.23270%0 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c2,129$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x891d…b19fbacked Yes2c2,100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.82339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13e…063cbacked Yes2c2,047$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94c4…2a41backed Yes2c2,018$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.53946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a4b…df5abacked Yes1c2,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2480%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes2c1,954$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.189833.7%33 W · 65 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd2d5…df2fbacked Yes1c1,946$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd479…be37backed Yes2c1,840$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.924443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aa2…2d9ebacked Yes3c1,791$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-65.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5668…eababacked Yes1c1,750$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81fa…c4d6backed Yes2c1,681$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.314330.2%13 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x319d…43a5backed Yes2c1,591$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c1,543$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.14120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes2c1,521$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10e9…d331backed Yes2c1,500$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363423.5%8 W · 26 L-5.7wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-51.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1446…0a30backed Yes2c1,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ff…92ebbacked Yes2c1,456$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…a219backed Yes2c1,429$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307542.7%32 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8cc…2c44backed Yes2c1,415$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.292227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Yes2c1,389$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Yes2c1,378$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb69a…3b90backed Yes2c1,352$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-73%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Yes2c1,316$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.323246.9%15 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes3c1,300$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1100%0 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xec8e…39b0backed Yes2c1,272$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9665…8d38backed Yes3c1,272$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5825…af22backed Yes2c1,268$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x843d…722ebacked Yes2c1,266$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22be…183abacked Yes2c1,207$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed Yes2c1,202$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8033…4795backed Yes2c1,053$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c1a…e5debacked Yes2c1,020$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0539…70f9backed Yes1c1,016$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c58…74c3backed Yes2c1,012$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc7e…06a2backed Yes2c1,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-25.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde59…451fbacked Yes2c1,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-72%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cd9…35b9backed Yes2c1,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34c1…fe25backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x337d…6984backed Yes1c982$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Yes2c972.24$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8715559.4%92 W · 63 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5da0…2644backed Yes2c970.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa1…daebbacked Yes2c962.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 70. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.