TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Siena win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$657,004
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,575

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $657,004 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1842…16eabacked Yes0c95,451$100 inLost-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ace…611dbacked Yes0c58,836$68 inLost-$6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1760…76fabacked Yes0c16,069$16 inLost-$16.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e9…1cbbbacked Yes0c16,069$16 inLost-$16.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0440…4280backed Yes0c16,069$16 inLost-$16.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50f8…2175backed Yes0c16,069$16 inLost-$16.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f8d…c26dbacked Yes0c16,063$16 inLost-$16.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d2…20dcbacked Yes0c16,063$16 inLost-$16.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9383…65dfbacked Yes0c16,045$16 inLost-$16.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x042c…6f51backed Yes0c16,045$16 inLost-$16.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc2…35adbacked Yes0c16,022$16 inLost-$16.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x184e…7984backed Yes0c15,999$16 inLost-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d12…c36dbacked Yes0c15,999$16 inLost-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac02…99c5backed Yes0c15,976$16 inLost-$15.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8383…476fbacked Yes0c15,976$16 inLost-$15.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4018…1bc8backed Yes0c15,976$16 inLost-$15.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735a…8097backed Yes0c15,976$16 inLost-$15.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2757…cb0abacked Yes0c15,920$16 inLost-$15.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a8…60a3backed Yes0c15,920$16 inLost-$15.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81db…2f49backed Yes0c15,896$16 inLost-$15.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f5…c3fbbacked Yes0c15,896$16 inLost-$15.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x526e…36cbbacked Yes0c15,856$16 inLost-$15.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4b4…15b2backed Yes0c15,856$16 inLost-$15.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da4…30efbacked Yes0c15,856$16 inLost-$15.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7592…3cf8backed Yes0c15,856$16 inLost-$15.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x523b…c25ebacked Yes0c15,856$16 inLost-$15.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2cd…8019backed Yes0c15,856$16 inLost-$15.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c6…9508backed Yes0c15,700$16 inLost-$15.7200%0 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b6…d96fbacked Yes0c15,417$15 inLost-$15.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292b…bf0ebacked Yes0c14,702$15 inLost-$14.7480%0 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f7f…343fbacked Yes0c12,110$12 inLost-$12.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67c2…b38fbacked Yes0c10,333$10 inLost-$10.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 70. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.