TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$761,698
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$164,409

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $761,698 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x67f9…d241backed Yes0c48,547$49 inLost-$48.55120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed Yes1c40,000$200 inLost-$2001533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c39,742$55 inLost-$54.816721%35 W · 132 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x571b…9e76backed Yes1c35,970$350 inLost-$35020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x646b…5112backed Yes1c34,952$181 inLost-$180.93382.6%1 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-83.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ba…391dbacked Yes0c29,056$70 inLost-$7030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7319…c664backed Yes0c20,000$30 inLost-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa1…daebbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked Yes0c17,130$18 inLost-$17.9436535.9%131 W · 234 L+1.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes0c16,318$60 inLost-$60.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c6…9508backed Yes0c15,689$16 inLost-$15.69200%0 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0706…6ffebacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost-$154015%6 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-59.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292b…bf0ebacked Yes0c14,912$15 inLost-$14.91480%0 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c12,000$14 inLost-$1430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd31d…b392backed Yes0c11,990$12 inLost-$11.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6ec…81c2backed Yes0c11,986$48 inLost-$47.948817%15 W · 73 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2b6…f42cbacked Yes0c11,920$12 inLost-$11.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x790b…655fbacked Yes0c11,360$11 inLost-$11.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4a9…6ad8backed Yes0c10,590$11 inLost-$10.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x501b…5aebbacked Yes0c10,130$41 inLost-$40.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa9…d3bebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f4…71cbbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1010536.2%38 W · 67 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x985f…7a5bbacked Yes0c9,382$19 inLost-$18.769051.1%46 W · 44 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d04…8859backed Yes1c8,333$50 inLost-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Yes0c6,578$20 inLost-$2015559.4%92 W · 63 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf888…415fbacked Yes1c5,110$31 inLost-$30.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c5,061$38 inLost-$37.61230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Yes1c5,000$50 inLost-$501947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Yes1c4,950$25 inLost-$24.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1487…d443backed Yes0c3,966$12 inLost-$11.97648.7%37 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c3,907$18 inLost-$18.2829012.1%35 W · 255 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ae…4f65backed Yes1c3,440$21 inLost-$20.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed16…916ebacked Yes1c3,333$20 inLost-$2090%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Yes1c3,181$25 inLost-$2511844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c41…42ebbacked Yes0c3,110$15 inLost-$15.44922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-62.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e4…b7aebacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost-$10150%0 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa653…444ebacked Yes1c2,459$25 inLost-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes1c2,448$14 inLost-$13.92030%6 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7673…9fc8backed Yes1c2,387$15 inLost-$14.5580%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc23…64ebbacked Yes1c2,320$14 inLost-$14.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes0c2,281$10 inLost-$10.347626.3%20 W · 56 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes1c2,167$13 inLost-$13250%0 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa41a…2e2bbacked Yes0c2,057$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x866a…de80backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost-$101926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc5…ba79backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost-$101127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0231…f609backed Yes1c2,000$12 inLost-$12520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes1c1,931$12 inLost-$12.338230.5%25 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-30.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Yes1c1,568$13 inLost-$12.55270%0 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76d9…e3c1backed Yes1c1,165$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 70. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.