TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Butler Bulldogs vs. Xavier Musketeers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Xavier Musketeersof Butler Bulldogs, Xavier Musketeers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,467
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,795

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,467 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe401…7b88backed Xavier Musketeers74c3,101$2,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.363,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Xavier Musketeers47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,59039744.8%178 W · 219 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Butler Bulldogs53c2,984$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.5889850%449 W · 449 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a7…5314backed Butler Bulldogs41c2,419$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.772227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd2d5…df2fbacked Butler Bulldogs28c1,415$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Butler Bulldogs51c1,229$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.5912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Butler Bulldogs26c1,223$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.11,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Butler Bulldogs46c1,208$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.2911439.5%45 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Xavier Musketeers67c1,154$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.752,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Xavier Musketeers58c1,019$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.145,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Xavier Musketeers58c988$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.961,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Xavier Musketeers47c899.44$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.1881453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Xavier Musketeers68c684.07$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.6648051%245 W · 235 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Xavier Musketeers50c476.6$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.534,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ce5…8fa2backed Butler Bulldogs48c368.09$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1751266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Xavier Musketeers72c364$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2549747.5%236 W · 261 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Butler Bulldogs29c361.65$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1457335.6%204 W · 369 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Xavier Musketeers73c304.96$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3545644.5%203 W · 253 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Butler Bulldogs27c248.89$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.223544.7%105 W · 130 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Xavier Musketeers59c240.88$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.932,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Xavier Musketeers69c236.14$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7732343%139 W · 184 L-18.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Butler Bulldogs50c231.63$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.812,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Xavier Musketeers65c225.55$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.361,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd098…8c03backed Butler Bulldogs52c223.07$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1165858.6%34 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Butler Bulldogs52c219.7$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.23,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Butler Bulldogs54c213.12$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.12,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Butler Bulldogs27c209$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.111,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Xavier Musketeers75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Butler Bulldogs54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1082853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Xavier Musketeers62c194.64$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.011,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f29…9d73backed Xavier Musketeers48c186.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.248253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18f6…b00bbacked Butler Bulldogs55c180.45$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995158.8%30 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf43d…1e75backed Butler Bulldogs9c162.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.846931.9%22 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Xavier Musketeers48c154.78$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.071,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Xavier Musketeers71c151.21$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.859849%48 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Butler Bulldogs54c151$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.241,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Butler Bulldogs24c146.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.581,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Butler Bulldogs19c111.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7473549.1%361 W · 374 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Xavier Musketeers48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1718851.6%97 W · 91 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a64…6769backed Xavier Musketeers48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1717950.8%91 W · 88 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e68…3215backed Butler Bulldogs54c101.85$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a9…d58bbacked Butler Bulldogs25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Butler Bulldogs52c77.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4810652.8%56 W · 50 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Butler Bulldogs26c71.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.624,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ad…44febacked Xavier Musketeers47c69.58$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2310151.5%52 W · 49 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Butler Bulldogs52c67.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2699045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…5c69backed Butler Bulldogs30c67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.16114.8%9 W · 52 L-12.0wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-64%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x2c07…aeb0backed Xavier Musketeers70c57.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.953948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Xavier Musketeers48c55.13$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.672,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bd8…5c53backed Butler Bulldogs54c55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.72250%11 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Butler Bulldogs51c50.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.579945.5%45 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Butler Bulldogs54c47.93$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8832652.8%172 W · 154 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Butler Bulldogs26c45.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.047451.4%38 W · 36 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+39.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Butler Bulldogs32c44.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5466831.4%210 W · 458 L-43.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdca6…9a97backed Xavier Musketeers49c40.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.893663.9%23 W · 13 L+5.6wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Butler Bulldogs50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020254.5%110 W · 92 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9bf…7a08backed Xavier Musketeers49c35.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+75.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaba…71d9backed Butler Bulldogs53c35.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Butler Bulldogs33c34.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3945953.8%247 W · 212 L-1.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaae5…63a6backed Butler Bulldogs53c24.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-32.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x434a…c03ebacked Butler Bulldogs52c23.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.351250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa6d…1193backed Xavier Musketeers48c23.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.351163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f8…f29cbacked Butler Bulldogs53c23.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.331764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6d…e4f4backed Xavier Musketeers47c23.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.331353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Butler Bulldogs50c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.55,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x06b6…b248backed Butler Bulldogs53c22.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.091540%6 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x319d…6f66backed Xavier Musketeers48c22.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.791154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ef2…6e74backed Butler Bulldogs53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf76b…8f52backed Xavier Musketeers67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.541931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.