Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Butler Bulldogs vs. Xavier Musketeers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe0c37eb634cde8e7602c7abe1d469f3456c16db99e71dad812b2d42e2ea5f98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xavier Musketeersof Butler Bulldogs, Xavier Musketeers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Xavier Musketeers | 74c | 3,101$2,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.36 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Xavier Musketeers | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Butler Bulldogs | 53c | 2,984$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.58 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a7…5314backed Butler Bulldogs | 41c | 2,419$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.77 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d5…df2fbacked Butler Bulldogs | 28c | 1,415$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Butler Bulldogs | 51c | 1,229$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.59 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Butler Bulldogs | 26c | 1,223$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.1 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Butler Bulldogs | 46c | 1,208$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.29 | 114 | 39.5%45 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Xavier Musketeers | 67c | 1,154$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.75 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Xavier Musketeers | 58c | 1,019$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.14 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Xavier Musketeers | 58c | 988$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.96 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Xavier Musketeers | 47c | 899.44$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.18 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Xavier Musketeers | 68c | 684.07$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.66 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Xavier Musketeers | 50c | 476.6$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.53 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce5…8fa2backed Butler Bulldogs | 48c | 368.09$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Xavier Musketeers | 72c | 364$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 497 | 47.5%236 W · 261 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Butler Bulldogs | 29c | 361.65$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Xavier Musketeers | 73c | 304.96$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Butler Bulldogs | 27c | 248.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 235 | 44.7%105 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Xavier Musketeers | 59c | 240.88$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.93 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Xavier Musketeers | 69c | 236.14$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 323 | 43%139 W · 184 L | -18.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Butler Bulldogs | 50c | 231.63$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.81 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Xavier Musketeers | 65c | 225.55$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…8c03backed Butler Bulldogs | 52c | 223.07$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Butler Bulldogs | 52c | 219.7$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Butler Bulldogs | 54c | 213.12$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.1 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Butler Bulldogs | 27c | 209$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Xavier Musketeers | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Butler Bulldogs | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Xavier Musketeers | 62c | 194.64$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f29…9d73backed Xavier Musketeers | 48c | 186.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.24 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Butler Bulldogs | 55c | 180.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…1e75backed Butler Bulldogs | 9c | 162.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Xavier Musketeers | 48c | 154.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Xavier Musketeers | 71c | 151.21$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Butler Bulldogs | 54c | 151$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Butler Bulldogs | 24c | 146.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Butler Bulldogs | 19c | 111.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Xavier Musketeers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 188 | 51.6%97 W · 91 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Xavier Musketeers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…3215backed Butler Bulldogs | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Butler Bulldogs | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Butler Bulldogs | 52c | 77.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Butler Bulldogs | 26c | 71.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…44febacked Xavier Musketeers | 47c | 69.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Butler Bulldogs | 52c | 67.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Butler Bulldogs | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -12.0wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -64%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…aeb0backed Xavier Musketeers | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Xavier Musketeers | 48c | 55.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd8…5c53backed Butler Bulldogs | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Butler Bulldogs | 51c | 50.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Butler Bulldogs | 54c | 47.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Butler Bulldogs | 26c | 45.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Butler Bulldogs | 32c | 44.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Xavier Musketeers | 49c | 40.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Butler Bulldogs | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 54.5%110 W · 92 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bf…7a08backed Xavier Musketeers | 49c | 35.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaba…71d9backed Butler Bulldogs | 53c | 35.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Butler Bulldogs | 33c | 34.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 459 | 53.8%247 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae5…63a6backed Butler Bulldogs | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…c03ebacked Butler Bulldogs | 52c | 23.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6d…1193backed Xavier Musketeers | 48c | 23.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f8…f29cbacked Butler Bulldogs | 53c | 23.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6d…e4f4backed Xavier Musketeers | 47c | 23.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Butler Bulldogs | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…b248backed Butler Bulldogs | 53c | 22.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x319d…6f66backed Xavier Musketeers | 48c | 22.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…6e74backed Butler Bulldogs | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf76b…8f52backed Xavier Musketeers | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Butler Bulldogs vs. Xavier Musketeersthis page
- Butler Bulldogs vs. Xavier Musketeers: O/U 159.5Over won
- Butler Bulldogs vs. Xavier Musketeers: O/U 161.5Over won
- Spread: Butler Bulldogs (-1.5)Xavier Musketeers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.