MLB · resolved market
Will Cal Raleigh win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x090d929220ed6407975a79d5fc2c8c6714a362e8dbcb205ec3e7a493080a6667
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 62c | 5,679$3,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144.01 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 36c | 2,864$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.75 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 22c | 2,365$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,845.06 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 8c | 2,303$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.3 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked No | 77c | 2,080$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.6 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed No | 78c | 1,878$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.04 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 79c | 1,654$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.48 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 78c | 1,495$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.89 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Yes | 25c | 1,408$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked No | 79c | 1,325$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.76 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 25c | 1,238$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 38c | 1,214$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.5 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 21c | 999.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.99 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked No | 67c | 929.1$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.61 | 212 | 46.2%98 W · 114 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 29c | 890$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.17 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…72b0backed Yes | 19c | 846.91$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…ad45backed Yes | 22c | 809$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.4 | 263 | 55.5%146 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…1f3ebacked Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 77c | 370.65$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked No | 26c | 350$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +8.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…1cedbacked Yes | 25c | 312$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yes | 23c | 262.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.23 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 55c | 240.97$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.39 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Yes | 21c | 235.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 67c | 228.84$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6194…95b6backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…4adabacked Yes | 23c | 183.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 51c | 161$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…aae4backed Yes | 24c | 157.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.17 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235c…ba38backed Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Yes | 21c | 144$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.76 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…b5c3backed Yes | 71c | 137.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 75c | 111$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 77c | 86.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked No | 76c | 79.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 609 | 41.4%252 W · 357 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed Yes | 24c | 75.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5b…35bebacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed No | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cal Raleigh win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?this page
- Will Brent Rooker win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Byron Buxton win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will James Wood win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jazz Chisholm win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Junior Caminero win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Matt Olson win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Oneil Cruz win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Ronald Acuña Jr. win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.