NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Spurs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7e3910eecb3c55d1616223498f79b5b9bf0a0d8cd14ede0a28c335de37eb84f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Mavericks, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Spurs | 62c | 1,787$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.18 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Mavericks | 37c | 529.6$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.95 | 667 | 44.5%297 W · 370 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Mavericks | 45c | 499.97$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.99 | 252 | 36.9%93 W · 159 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Mavericks | 2c | 449$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…0c0cbacked Mavericks | 40c | 350$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 306 | 19.9%61 W · 245 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d5…ac1ebacked Spurs | 55c | 307.53$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.71 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Mavericks | 28c | 303.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.71 | 463 | 42.5%197 W · 266 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Mavericks | 43c | 276.05$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Spurs | 55c | 274.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Mavericks | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Mavericks | 36c | 166.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Mavericks | 43c | 142.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Mavericks | 49c | 109.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Spurs | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 157 | 24.2%38 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Mavericks | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Mavericks | 45c | 98.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…37d7backed Spurs | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Spurs | 50c | 88.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Spurs | 51c | 82.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…6530backed Spurs | 55c | 65.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Spurs | 73c | 63.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Spurs | 46c | 62.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 433 | 21.2%92 W · 341 L | -15.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Spurs | 51c | 58.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 489 | 38.7%189 W · 300 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Mavericks | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 354 | 38.1%135 W · 219 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Mavericks | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed Mavericks | 51c | 39.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…bb74backed Mavericks | 33c | 34.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa249…12fabacked Spurs | 67c | 32.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe08…40bebacked Mavericks | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Spurs | 46c | 24.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…830ebacked Mavericks | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…4e97backed Mavericks | 50c | 22.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb6…48d6backed Mavericks | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.