Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 24-25°F on February 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdca42e1c2af8700ecd68d546f9e0e59c130da8c2dded85680743fe98a1f92afa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25ca…bddfbacked No | 0c | 8,775$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 7c | 728.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x979c…b563backed No | 29c | 376.08$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.01 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 51c | 315.09$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.19 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…7b9cbacked Yes | 70c | 301.2$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 31c | 291.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 43c | 286.58$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 54c | 272.49$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.27 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed No | 75c | 253.21$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 69c | 249.12$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca4…1386backed Yes | 56c | 187.6$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 46c | 164.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 69c | 154.66$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…af3fbacked No | 13c | 121.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 48c | 105.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 18c | 94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 45c | 93.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 58c | 69.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 76c | 66.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 47c | 65.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed Yes | 80c | 57.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 39c | 51.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 61c | 50.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…583bbacked Yes | 55c | 50.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f37…0a9ebacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…bb74backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 44c | 49.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 47.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…d38fbacked Yes | 56c | 46.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 45c | 46.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 75c | 45.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 35c | 45.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…0a36backed Yes | 66c | 37.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…63cabacked Yes | 66c | 37.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…96edbacked Yes | 73c | 37.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 43c | 36.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…7aa4backed Yes | 62c | 34.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 38c | 31.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 67c | 30.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked Yes | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bff…bb6fbacked Yes | 79c | 28.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Yes | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 74c | 23.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4d…e644backed Yes | 70c | 20.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…f11dbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc21…b2c9backed Yes | 67c | 15.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 24-25°F on February 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 19°F or below on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 20-21°F on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 22-23°F on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26-27°F on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 28-29°F on February 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.