Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 22-23°F on February 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47a576042f19f633be507d257328fdcd8aa0ade33bd14d6ad1e48dd8d9170b69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2741…495fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 5c | 256$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed Yes | 18c | 232.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 29c | 230$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 227.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 6c | 195$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…5511backed Yes | 9c | 176.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 40c | 157.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…583bbacked Yes | 10c | 149.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 32c | 149.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…7b9cbacked Yes | 67c | 148.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3460…edbbbacked Yes | 26c | 142.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 124.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…761ebacked Yes | 16c | 121.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 18c | 114.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f37…0a9ebacked No | 45c | 110.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 26c | 108.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325e…9d89backed Yes | 14c | 107.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 16c | 82.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 58.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…af3fbacked Yes | 50c | 54.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…bb74backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a2…5521backed No | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 49c | 40.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…650ebacked No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e3…4a3bbacked Yes | 64c | 33.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 22-23°F on February 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 19°F or below on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 20-21°F on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 24-25°F on February 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26-27°F on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 28-29°F on February 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.