Venezuela · resolved market
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9ce6fb5b566d2686b87b3ff777d71dbdd3aaccb4139662a5f57eab2a4285d58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 13c | 5,384$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +565%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 9c | 3,554$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11af…c7e2backed No | 0c | 2,095$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…bb74backed Yes | 68c | 1,582$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…6a46backed No | 51c | 1,491$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 58c | 972.99$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 46c | 799.97$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.99 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 44c | 544.25$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.34 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +8.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…ae74backed Yes | 49c | 505.29$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 42c | 423.52$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.61 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…85dabacked No | 54c | 369.73$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked No | 54c | 350$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 44c | 334.92$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.56 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 303.9$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.03 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…643ebacked Yes | 45c | 268.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 44c | 254.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.69 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 57c | 229.12$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…974ebacked Yes | 47c | 208$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.24 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc51d…373bbacked Yes | 44c | 182.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 174.46$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…e6afbacked No | 60c | 170$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56af…e2a4backed No | 61c | 164.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 119.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa67c…608bbacked Yes | 44c | 110$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -48%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 60c | 103.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…5861backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…dbcabacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 11c | 99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc83d…5ca2backed No | 56c | 87.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304c…7a74backed No | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c62…3900backed Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840f…41d2backed Yes | 42c | 64.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +141%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 44c | 51.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 41c | 50.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0530…d8febacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…e826backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c974backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…339dbacked No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…4d9dbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.42per pick | 57cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…6191backed No | 54c | 36.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…9ba7backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1b…c38fbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…1c6cbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5718…0756backed No | 57c | 26.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 54c | 26.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5d…2408backed No | 55c | 21.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…e7c7backed No | 58c | 21.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…f5dabacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…7bbfbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e1…1573backed No | 59c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x621e…85a5backed No | 55c | 19.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63cf…d155backed No | 57c | 17.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.