Stocks · resolved market
Pelosi vs. S&P - January
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d065198d1872a7000691e74dc75a36a7882834f4259ca2526e6a031ed3fb8cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelosiof Pelosi, S&P
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Pelosi | 58c | 3,804$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed S&P | 41c | 2,500$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked S&P | 39c | 1,521$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed S&P | 35c | 1,401$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed S&P | 42c | 1,009$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf1…98cbbacked Pelosi | 74c | 999.97$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed S&P | 22c | 589.6$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed S&P | 29c | 568.45$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.07 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed S&P | 43c | 499.99$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fce…b30dbacked Pelosi | 54c | 399.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…2078backed S&P | 29c | 349.96$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Pelosi | 58c | 345.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…8397backed Pelosi | 76c | 319.04$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked S&P | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4c…b7b8backed Pelosi | 51c | 245$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…3165backed Pelosi | 79c | 200.91$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…bb74backed S&P | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed68…2701backed Pelosi | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…9630backed S&P | 21c | 152.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked S&P | 36c | 133.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6273…95c8backed S&P | 28c | 126.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2820…0d0fbacked Pelosi | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b4…8fd1backed S&P | 26c | 115.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf85…8b6abacked S&P | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6a…b584backed Pelosi | 75c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Pelosi | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…ee91backed Pelosi | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…3e1ebacked S&P | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd4…d37abacked S&P | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed S&P | 24c | 99.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…df71backed S&P | 24c | 83.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…a496backed S&P | 25c | 76.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb832…3408backed Pelosi | 56c | 71.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…b141backed Pelosi | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf203…2cb2backed S&P | 16c | 68.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…01cdbacked Pelosi | 74c | 67.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed S&P | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa10b…99ccbacked Pelosi | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…edeebacked Pelosi | 76c | 61.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb9…c354backed Pelosi | 56c | 53.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f3…5294backed Pelosi | 40c | 50.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Pelosi | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…8b6fbacked Pelosi | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ad…8ef7backed Pelosi | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed S&P | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6d…d84dbacked Pelosi | 78c | 49.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…d500backed Pelosi | 74c | 44.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…eca5backed Pelosi | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed S&P | 32c | 39.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…7e1bbacked Pelosi | 79c | 36.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb7…23d8backed Pelosi | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x857d…f02fbacked Pelosi | 75c | 33.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Pelosi | 78c | 32.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed S&P | 46c | 31.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…dcf1backed Pelosi | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Pelosi | 76c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Pelosi | 48c | 25.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…655ebacked Pelosi | 79c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d97…dc91backed Pelosi | 72c | 23.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked Pelosi | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf4…3f9bbacked Pelosi | 75c | 18.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…c6ddbacked Pelosi | 74c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07a…d9adbacked Pelosi | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb43f…8368backed Pelosi | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.