TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Pacers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pacersof Kings, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,501,571
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,520,829

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,501,571 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,867 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed72…b8b0backed Kings39c330,358$130,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130,088.582245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Pacers61c80,246$48,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,367.842,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Kings34c68,580$23,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,488.6338649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Pacers62c65,685$40,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,284.579641.7%40 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Kings40c50,000$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,999.9918045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Pacers59c50,000$29,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,263.9231445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Pacers60c50,000$30,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,799.9151350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Pacers62c47,439$29,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,201.1817861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Kings39c47,275$18,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,51021450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Pacers61c43,000$26,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,899.9823245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc4a…87d4backed Kings39c42,905$16,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,861.923551.4%18 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Pacers79c40,182$31,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,550.987869.2%54 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Pacers59c40,000$23,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,399.9314052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Kings38c39,305$14,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,873.642,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Pacers65c38,370$25,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,268.9859646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kings20c35,821$7,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,050.355,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Kings21c35,562$7,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,307.539640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Kings40c35,500$14,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,20010058%58 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Pacers60c33,989$20,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,595.4227251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Pacers60c30,000$18,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,924.861,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ed7…e617backed Pacers61c26,060$15,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,163.47255.6%40 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb84…08a9backed Pacers65c25,735$16,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,885.695139.2%20 W · 31 L-9.3wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-34.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Pacers61c25,000$15,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,749.9938248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Kings40c24,248$9,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,699.1887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Kings39c20,000$7,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,85035235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Kings8c18,923$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.1427917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Pacers60c17,589$10,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,961.291,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Kings22c16,956$3,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,766.951,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Kings39c16,552$6,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,455.3313248.5%64 W · 68 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Pacers62c16,129$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,129.0334062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Kings38c16,000$6,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,079.9274748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd56b…903dbacked Kings42c15,967$6,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,706.14944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad71…4c93backed Pacers58c15,967$9,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,706.14955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Kings27c15,105$4,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,104.474,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Kings11c15,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65026637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Kings7c14,105$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.2710235.3%36 W · 66 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x478d…9ea9backed Kings39c14,000$5,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,460922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-69.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Kings38c13,500$5,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,154.8847028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x22c6…cf2abacked Pacers61c13,000$7,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,069.971838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Pacers61c12,819$7,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,999.4169852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Pacers60c12,781$7,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,112.5837557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Pacers61c12,000$7,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,68017348.6%84 W · 89 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Pacers61c11,475$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,475.257468.9%51 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings39c10,035$3,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,916.713,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Pacers60c10,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00029748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9615…60ddbacked Kings40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00014853.4%79 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kings40c9,960$3,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,982.274,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17cb…3ab8backed Pacers59c9,567$5,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,889.447437.8%28 W · 46 L-9.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd0f8…1546backed Kings39c9,000$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,510966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Pacers59c7,771$4,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,150.132,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a9c…7365backed Kings39c7,600$2,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,964850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Kings41c7,307$2,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,996.039838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Pacers60c7,217$4,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,904.6720352.2%106 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Kings41c7,150$2,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,966.2222243.7%97 W · 125 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Pacers61c7,123$4,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,777.9717658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pacers60c7,088$4,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,858.969,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Kings4c7,028$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.261,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4954…23d6backed Kings39c7,000$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,730250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4087…1665backed Kings40c6,744$2,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,697.623737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Kings32c6,571$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,082.0744654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Pacers61c6,557$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,557.382454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b9d…4d41backed Kings39c6,400$2,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,496250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4615…c180backed Pacers62c6,400$3,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,432757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e6…70c4backed Pacers62c6,400$3,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,432425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-59.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaea…3a83backed Pacers62c6,300$3,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,394560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33ce…aef7backed Pacers61c6,000$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3401100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd104…0547backed Kings40c6,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4010…77d4backed Kings10c5,600$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54848146.2%222 W · 259 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Kings7c5,570$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.81,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4124…3291backed Pacers62c5,500$3,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0902100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Pacers61c5,147$3,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,007.372,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Pacers60c5,100$3,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0371,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x314c…24b5backed Kings5c5,095$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.76260%0 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Kings28c5,065$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.5750838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Pacers60c5,020$3,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,007.8836741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd123…d341backed Kings14c5,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5787…7660backed Kings39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x723f…c7d3backed Pacers62c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,900250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd570…3b72backed Kings39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+42.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Kings40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0280…a33ebacked Pacers61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick53cpaid-76.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xcc44…7269backed Pacers62c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,900450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed0e…b305backed Kings11c5,000$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.921723.5%51 W · 166 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+75.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b63…27a7backed Kings39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.98650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01b9…f859backed Pacers61c4,972$3,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,939.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d39…0323backed Kings39c4,959$1,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,933.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Kings19c4,726$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.573455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Pacers78c4,680$3,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.8129458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Kings26c4,657$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20117441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Kings17c4,580$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.213,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Kings40c4,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60010837%40 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cb8…43f6backed Kings20c4,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8007236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Kings40c3,986$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.992,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ec…50aebacked Pacers62c3,900$2,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,482862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kings38c3,876$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.112,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d9…a6e1backed Pacers78c3,859$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.925667.9%38 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Pacers60c3,787$2,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.527252.8%38 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d16…85f3backed Pacers60c3,700$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4804742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x306a…0d29backed Pacers61c3,550$2,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.58048.8%39 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe07e…4517backed Kings12c3,511$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-46.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.