NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 120.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x169583a0b1e80069da63b83f26bd1be942af659cf6e7eae69656981233bbdec3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 51c | 2,148$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.43 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 55c | 1,095$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.72 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Under | 53c | 1,033$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.01 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 876.56$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.98 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Over | 45c | 856.9$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.61 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 47c | 441.38$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.45 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over | 49c | 216.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -17.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaef…6c50backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 50c | 196$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 160$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 49c | 159$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed Over | 52c | 134.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Under | 47c | 126.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 80c | 126.66$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65cd…1e0bbacked Under | 52c | 119.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Over | 49c | 82.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf447…3fe7backed Over | 51c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Over | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Under | 50c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Over | 51c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Over | 51c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Over | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 120.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pacers (-1.5)Pacers won
- Kings vs. PacersPacers won
- Kings vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Kings vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Kings vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Kings vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Kings vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Pacers (-4.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.