NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Pacers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0997185805de07d6cb27422dd63616447fd5fdf6b38a1ed64c8e96f33cd6eb6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Pacers, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Kings | 45c | 286$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a63…bc0cbacked Kings | 47c | 196$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…ec97backed Pacers | 53c | 188$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Kings | 45c | 158$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Kings | 45c | 131$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Kings | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 169 | 43.8%74 W · 95 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pacers | 51c | 102.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Pacers | 55c | 99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Kings | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Kings | 45c | 67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Kings | 45c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Pacers | 55c | 64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Pacers | 55c | 63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Pacers | 55c | 61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Pacers | 55c | 61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Pacers | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pacers | 50c | 49.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f3…4064backed Kings | 50c | 49.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Pacers | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Pacers | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Kings | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Pacers | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Pacers | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Pacers | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Pacers | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Pacers | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Pacers | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…9f7cbacked Pacers | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Pacers | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Pacers | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Pacers (-1.5)this page
- Kings vs. PacersPacers won
- Kings vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Kings vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Kings vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Kings vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Kings vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Kings vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Pacers (-4.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.