NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pacers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93eafa54a16f829b611b3315e10c8f47d994ec45e6c80b5f3ffeb71a94503c5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Pacers, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Kings | 54c | 5,070$2,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,737.21 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…f7e2backed Kings | 54c | 4,665$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 191 | 36.1%69 W · 122 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 47c | 4,537$2,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,417.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pacers | 46c | 3,905$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,108.56 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…5862backed Pacers | 47c | 2,774$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.47 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe507…1258backed Kings | 53c | 2,191$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.03 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…62ccbacked Pacers | 48c | 2,020$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.41 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Kings | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Kings | 53c | 1,462$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.16 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Pacers | 46c | 1,120$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.02 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Pacers | 46c | 579$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.66 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 49c | 484$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.84 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pacers | 45c | 363.64$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…a297backed Kings | 55c | 190.91$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Pacers | 46c | 186$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed Kings | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…8132backed Kings | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…74dfbacked Pacers | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…f395backed Kings | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 55c | 119$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Kings | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…6921backed Pacers | 49c | 112.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Kings | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Kings | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Kings | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pacers | 46c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Pacers | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Pacers | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Kings | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Pacers | 47c | 70.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pacers | 47c | 59.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Kings | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…b5a2backed Kings | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc968…c59bbacked Kings | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Kings | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pacers (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pacers (-1.5)Pacers won
- Kings vs. PacersPacers won
- Kings vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Kings vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Kings vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Kings vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Kings vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Kings vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.