Venezuela · resolved market
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7058f8abef2ca5e080b6febb7ec45da60319582619e89183b700aca3d8fb21da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked No | 1c | 4,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked No | 1c | 1,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 23c | 999.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed No | 2c | 621.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 24c | 459.96$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 77c | 450$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…bb74backed Yes | 68c | 299.98$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 76c | 221.04$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +124.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…ffedbacked No | 23c | 212.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 24c | 177$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 15c | 152$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 149.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa137…06d7backed Yes | 75c | 132.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca9…cfafbacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…f57ebacked No | 31c | 112$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4a…bbefbacked No | 23c | 86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed Yes | 75c | 74.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…da8bbacked Yes | 74c | 67.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 55c | 62.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x349a…6b12backed No | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…b633backed Yes | 64c | 53.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be1…a3c4backed Yes | 78c | 50.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…fb5dbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 22c | 49.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 64c | 38.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…84ccbacked Yes | 57c | 27.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…bb3ebacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 80c | 21.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…6f97backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21b…0f78backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…f39fbacked Yes | 74c | 18.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255c…f677backed Yes | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38e…3b9abacked Yes | 78c | 13.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…f56bbacked Yes | 79c | 12.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.