Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Sofiivka by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7a39df772960b9919ef5095b508babad483b13c916acc3dca10d355c440d3a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 1c | 14,816$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 21c | 10,777$2,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304.6 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…a20fbacked Yes | 67c | 3,936$2,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,635.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 15c | 2,998$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.75 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 30c | 2,567$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.53 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8135…a544backed No | 73c | 2,040$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…c2ddbacked No | 46c | 2,026$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 37c | 1,558$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.47 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 28c | 1,543$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.06 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 26c | 1,498$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.37 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,416$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 48c | 1,353$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.95 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,304$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.2 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 59c | 1,300$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.1 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 54c | 1,260$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.52 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 1,253$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.96 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…3c39backed Yes | 35c | 1,123$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…22c0backed No | 65c | 1,037$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…cf55backed No | 61c | 1,020$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Yes | 79c | 1,011$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…0556backed Yes | 38c | 1,006$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 33c | 980.38$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.89 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 57c | 968.92$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.49 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x768b…de48backed No | 77c | 941.8$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.8 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…37d6backed Yes | 43c | 806.46$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +248.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…5999backed No | 55c | 800$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc3…e75cbacked Yes | 45c | 799.82$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 18c | 752.19$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.4 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes | 54c | 708$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…9b6cbacked No | 45c | 696.62$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.62 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 29c | 676.56$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.81 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 66c | 640.91$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.93 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked No | 68c | 610.19$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.53 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…9e84backed No | 46c | 586.93$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 68c | 570.73$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.64 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed No | 55c | 513.47$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.05 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 23c | 500$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes | 45c | 499.75$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed No | 60c | 483.94$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 34c | 477.94$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.79 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 39c | 470.21$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.67 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed No | 46c | 470$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870e…9514backed No | 54c | 440$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c3…d56ebacked Yes | 46c | 440$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 39c | 427.46$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 58c | 414.96$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.68 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab1…c0debacked Yes | 46c | 414$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…6196backed No | 54c | 414$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 47c | 410.64$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 403.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 59c | 399.99$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked No | 61c | 394.26$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53d…50acbacked Yes | 13c | 392.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb35a…c452backed No | 26c | 344.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…23bcbacked No | 73c | 342.47$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 40c | 334.43$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.77 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…1df2backed No | 60c | 331.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 34c | 324.59$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.51 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 68c | 323.66$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 46c | 320.57$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.97 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805b…be54backed Yes | 49c | 307.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +900%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 61c | 300$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 299.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 34c | 296.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…9652backed Yes | 25c | 283.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…675ebacked No | 56c | 268$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 29c | 256.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 253.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 38c | 249.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 57c | 246.95$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.96 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…a11dbacked No | 55c | 246.26$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.72 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…35b9backed Yes | 46c | 240$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…3af9backed No | 42c | 240$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb4…2428backed No | 54c | 240$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c92…e17abacked Yes | 58c | 240$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ec…4477backed No | 46c | 238$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 237.51$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.55 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 18c | 232.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 53c | 230$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 227.83$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…52efbacked Yes | 22c | 221.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 55c | 210.57$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.09 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 6c | 210.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked Yes | 52c | 204.77$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…353fbacked Yes | 51c | 202.74$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 13c | 201.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…bb74backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed No | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 43c | 198.63$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…6a66backed Yes | 62c | 197.44$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…5155backed Yes | 53c | 189.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed Yes | 28c | 187.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf3…fc71backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Sofiivka by January 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Sofiivka by February 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.